The Indian rupee has plunged to a new all-time low against the US dollar, reaching 95.80 before settling at 95.66, as the combined pressures of elevated crude oil prices and geopolitical instability in West Asia continue to weigh heavily on the currency.
Illustration: Dominic Xavier/Rediff
Key Points
- The rupee hit a new all-time low of 95.80 against the US dollar, closing at 95.66, primarily due to high crude prices and West Asia geopolitical concerns.
- The Indian rupee is currently the worst-performing currency in Asia for the year, having lost over 6 per cent.
- Potential RBI intervention and increased import tariffs on gold and silver (to 15%) are measures aimed at moderating further depreciation.
- Analysts predict the rupee’s trajectory will be more influenced by crude prices and the West Asia situation than by gold import curbs.
- Retail inflation in India also rose to 3.48 per cent in April, driven by higher prices of gold, silver, and some kitchen items.
The rupee on Wednesday slipped to an all-time low of 95.80 against the US dollar, and settled at 95.66 near its record closing low level, as the cumulative strain of elevated crude prices and West Asia geopolitical concerns offset hopes of lower demand for the US dollar due to import curbs.
Forex traders said possible RBI intervention and duty-led compression of gold imports helped moderate further weakness for the USD/INR pair, but the rupee was pressured by the trajectory of crude and the West Asia situation.
Rupee’s Performance and Contributing Factors
The rupee has become the worst-performing currency in Asia for the year, registering a loss of over 6 per cent so far this year, as elevated crude oil prices, a strong dollar and concerns regarding the West Asia crisis weighed on investor sentiments, traders said.
At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened at 95.52, registering a gain of 16 paise from its previous all-time closing low.
In a highly volatile trade, the USD/INR pair witnessed an intra-day high of 95.51 and a low of 95.80 against the greenback before settling at 95.66, up 2 paise from its previous close.
The rupee depreciated 40 paise to close at a fresh all-time low of 95.68 against the US dollar on Tuesday.
Expert Analysis and Outlook
“On the rupee, USD/INR around 95.60 reflects the cumulative strain of elevated crude prices and the West Asia geopolitical premium.
“Active RBI intervention and the duty-led compression of gold imports should help moderate further weakness.
“The path of the rupee from here will be shaped less by gold and more by the trajectory of crude and the West Asia situation,” Anindya Banerjee, Head of Commodity and Currency Research,
The Indian government raised import tariffs on gold and silver to 15 per cent from 6 per cent to curb overseas purchases of the metals and ease pressure on the country’s FX reserves.
Traders said the hike in gold import tariff could bring down the demand of the yellow metal in the country, which is the world’s second-largest consumer of precious metals.
On Sunday, PM Modi urged people to avoid gold purchases for a year to help protect foreign exchange as India imports most of the precious commodities with hardly any production of its own.
Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading at 98.51, up 0.22 per cent.
“We expect the rupee to trade with a negative bias amid rising crude oil prices, concerns over inflation and geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran. However, any intervention by the RBI may support the rupee at lower levels.
“USDINR spot price is expected to trade in a range of 95.45 to 96.15,” Anuj Choudhary, Research analyst at Mirae Asset ShareKhan, said.
Global Oil and Domestic Market Impact
Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, fell 0.44 per cent to $107.30 per barrel in futures trade.
“Brent oil prices were stable at $107 per barrel levels after rallying for three straight sessions, with traders weighing on continued disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and assessing US inventory numbers,” Anil Kumar Bhansali, Head of Treasury and executive director, Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP, said.
On the domestic equity market front, Sensex settled marginally up by 49.74 points at 74,608.98, while the Nifty gained 33.05 points to 23,412.60.
Foreign Institutional Investors offloaded equities worth Rs 4,703.15 crore on Wednesday, according to exchange data.
On the domestic macroeconomic front, retail inflation inched up to 3.48 per cent in April mainly due to higher prices of gold and silver jewellery as well as some kitchen items, according to government data released on Tuesday.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based inflation, with base year 2024, was 3.40 per cent in March, 3.21 per cent in February, and 2.74 per cent in January.
The data released by the National Statistics Office (NSO) showed that inflation in the food basket was at 4.20 per cent in April, up from 3.87 per cent in the preceding month.
Background
The rupee depreciated 40 paise to close at a fresh all-time low of 95.68 against the US dollar on Tuesday.
