China’s military has been studying President Donald Trump’s war on Iran for lessons that could prove helpful in any future conflict of its own, according to Western officials familiar with the matter, scrutinizing US offensive capabilities as it sees the strategic balance shifting in its favor in the Indo-Pacific.
Beijing was likely closely observing America’s military performance on display in Iran and gaining highly valuable information that it would almost certainly factor into its plans for any potential conflict over Taiwan, said the officials, who requested anonymity to discuss a sensitive matter. Taiwan is a self-governing island that China claims as its territory — a view Taipei rejects.
China’s Ministry of Defense didn’t reply to a request for comment.
While China is still gaming out the economic and diplomatic consequences of the war, President Xi Jinping would probably welcome the diversion of US attention and resources toward the Middle East and away from the Indo-Pacific, the officials said. They cited the Pentagon’s redeployment of military assets from Asia to Iran as a tangible reason for China’s military to draw positives from the conflict.
The perceived advantage for China’s military suggests a second US adversary is benefiting from Trump’s war, after US allies warned Russian President Vladimir Putin was inadvertently emerging as the winner thanks to the rising oil price and easing of US sanctions.
In contrast to most other Group of 20 leaders, Xi has so far stayed silent on the conflict engulfing a major Chinese friend, as officials assess the full scale of the fallout from the war. While China has in the past repeatedly said Taiwan must be brought under its control, by force if necessary, Beijing hasn’t indicated it’s preparing to do so any time soon.
Xi has also embarked on China’s biggest purge of generals since Mao Zedong’s chaotic rule ended in 1976 — an anti-corruption campaign that’s raised questions about the readiness of the People’s Liberation Army to go to war.
Former US Ambassador to China Nicholas Burns said on Wednesday in London that Beijing had shown the “same, intense focus” on the battlefield in Ukraine over the past four years and it was “not surprising at all” that its military would be trying to learn from US action agiainst Iran. Burns urged the need to for the US to maintain close military alignment with allies including Australia, Japan and the Philippines.
“Keeping Europe engaged with the US and the Asian allies is really critical,” Burns said at Chatham House. “That’s not in the Chinese interest. But that’s keeping China off balance.”
Influential Chinese commentators like Hu Xijin, former editor-in-chief of the tabloid Global Times, have been more outspoken, however, in invoking parallels with Taiwan. Hu wrote last week on Weibo, a Chinese social media platform, that the grinding war showed how “strained” the US military capabilities have become since Iran had already been weakened by decades of sanctions.
“It is truly amusing that some American elites are still talking grandly about taking on the PLA in the Taiwan Strait,” he wrote.
US allies in Asia have been on guard as the Pentagon continues to pour weapons into the war. The US is sending a unit of up to 2,400 Marines from Japan to the Middle East, along with its command vessel that carries a squadron of F-35 fighter jets and helicopters.
Meanwhile, South Korean President Lee Jae Myung has confirmed the US may need to relocate air defense assets to the region amid reports the Pentagon has moved launchers from an advanced missile defense system out of Asia.
China will also view favorably the rapid depletion of American munitions stocks during the first three weeks of the Iran conflict, the officials said.
US forces have been forced to expend their inventories of expensive, hard-to-replace interceptors to counter the Iranian barrage, with low-cost Shahed-136 drones seeing America and its allies use up protection systems designed primarily to combat more advanced weapons.
The US hasn’t provided an estimate of how much the campaign is costing and public data on its missile stockpiles is limited. US lawmakers have been told spending totaled $11.3 billion in the first six days, the New York Times reported. German defense giant Rheinmetall AG put the total value of American munitions used in the first 72 hours of the war at $4 billion, including about 400 cruise missiles and 800 air defense interceptors.
For prominent Chinese nationalist voices like blogger Ren Yi, a third-generation descendant of a former Communist Party leader who goes by the moniker “Chairman Rabbit,” the reallocation of US military assets points to signs of cracks in the West’s ability to project power in Beijing’s neighborhood.
In a lengthy post on X, Ren described how US allies increasingly find themselves living in an “Israel First” universe.
“This demonstrates a clear hierarchy,” wrote the Harvard University-educated grandson of former Guangdong party chief Ren Zhongyi. “Israel sits at the very top, even above US interests.”
He added: “Other allies and partners are at the bottom, left to fight for scraps.”
With assistance from Brendan Scott.
This article was generated from an automated news agency feed without modifications to text.
