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With less than three weeks to go before Americans vote in the midterm elections on November 3, 2026; the polls are so called because they fall midway through a President’s four-year term. The President is not on the ballot. Unlike India’s Election Commission, the United States’ federal Election Assistance Commission does not run elections, and voter registration, voting and counting are managed primarily by state and local authorities under a decentralised system. Each State has its own rules, and thousands of counties and towns print ballots, establish polling centres and count votes. Many Americans vote early, by post or in person, and counting can take days.
Voters will choose the Congress that shapes the President’s last two years. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives are due for election, since members serve two-year terms. In the Senate, where members serve six years, 35 of the 100 seats are up for election, including special elections in Ohio and Florida. Republicans hold a narrow majority in the House, where 218 seats are needed for control, and 53 seats in the Senate, so the Democrats need a net gain of four. Voters in States, including California, Texas and Florida, will also elect 39 Governors. Those elected now will be in office for the 2028 presidential election, and many will sign off on its results.
On the forecasts
The forecasts favour the Democrats in the House, where the Cook Political Report expects them to gain between five and 15 seats. The Senate is closer, with Democrats narrowly ahead in Texas, Iowa and Michigan.
Indian readers would closely follow the race for Ohio Governor. Vivek Ramaswamy, who sought the Republican presidential nomination in 2024, would be the State’s first Indian-American Governor. He now trails the Democrat, Amy Acton, a former State Health director, by six points in one recent poll and nine in another. A poor national mood for Republicans explains much of this.
His campaign has also faced open hostility towards his Indian heritage and Hindu faith, from a primary rival and online — part of a wider rise in anti-Indian rhetoric on the American right since the H-1B debate.
Midterms usually serve as a verdict on the President, and the President’s party usually loses seats. In this case, President Donald Trump has made this election about himself, even if many Republican candidates would have preferred otherwise. In September, the Republicans held their first-ever midterm convention, in Dallas, built around Mr. Trump. He is now on a rally tour of at least 17 States, telling supporters to “pretend I’m on the ballot”. His approval stands at about 30%, and registered voters prefer the Democrats for Congress by around eight points.
The key issues
Five issues dominate. The first is the cost of living, as groceries, housing and fuel grow dearer and tariffs push prices up. The second is the war with Iran, launched with Israel in late February 2026, which is unpopular and has made fuel costlier. The third is immigration, where large deportation raids have cost the Republicans their old advantage. The fourth is health care, where cuts to Medicaid, the public insurance programme for low-income Americans, are among the administration’s least popular measures. The fifth, crime in America’s cities, is the Republicans’ strongest card, and the issue on which Mr. Trump polls best.
The campaign is also shadowed by fears about the vote itself. Mr. Trump has pushed for proof of citizenship to register, pressed Republican States to redraw their congressional maps in mid-decade, and called on Republicans to “take over” voting in some places.
He has not ruled out sending immigration agents or the National Guard to polling stations. Federal law bars armed agents from polling places, and officials say immigration agents will not patrol them, but the threat alone may keep some voters at home. Asked whether he would accept a defeat, Mr. Trump said he would, if the elections are honest.
Impact on India
For India, the election comes at a difficult moment. U.S. tariffs on Indian goods rose to 50% in 2025 before a February framework cut them to 18%, and the interim deal is still unsigned. On September 18, Mr. Trump signed a law allowing tariffs of up to 100% on the largest buyers of Russian energy, including India, with 58 House Democrats voting for it. The $1,00,000 fee on new H-1B visas and Washington’s warmth towards Pakistan add to the strain.
A recent study by the Takshashila Institution, based on 42 interviews in Washington, found that support for India in Congress is wide but shallow. Groups opposed to cheap imports, skilled migration, and Russian oil money are smaller, but they care more, and they vote. India had friends rather than costs: many members liked India but no member paid a price for harming it.
A Democratic House could ease the treatment of Indian students and workers and press to end a war that has raised India’s oil bill. It is unlikely to change the tariffs or the Russia law. A President weakened at home may also look abroad for wins — either a trade deal with India or fresh pressure on it. New Delhi should expect the relationship to be decided in the White House, whoever controls Congress.
Anil Raman is a retired Brigadier and a research fellow in the Geopolitics Program of Takshashila Institution
Published – October 17, 2026 12:08 am IST
