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Industry experts said this could benefit Indian pharmaceutical manufacturers, the world’s largest generic drug suppliers. “There is a high probability that prices may get inflated,” said Namit Joshi, chairman, Pharmaceuticals Export Promotion Council of India (Pharmexcil). According to Pharmexcil data, GCC countries account for 5.58% of Indian exports. Their recent data show an upward trajectory in total export value of Indian pharmaceutical exports to Middle East (WANA region) from $1,320.44 million in FY21 to $1,749.68 million in FY25.
Key markets like UAE, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Kuwait and Yemen are highly dependent on India for affordable medicines and generic formulations. Pharmexcil data also indicate significant growth in emerging markets such as Jordan, Kuwait and Libya, and in product categories like vaccines, surgical products and AYUSH formulations.
Various Indian companies like Dr Reddy’s, Biocon, Lupin, Cipla and Sun Pharma have operations across the region. The current war situation could lead to increased demand for essential pharmaceutical goods, including trauma care drugs, antibiotics, analgesics, and chronic disease medications which may see a spike in demand.
Indian companies are adopting a cautious wait-and-watch stance.
“We are monitoring the situation and remain committed to taking necessary measures to ensure uninterrupted supply of our products,” Dr Reddy’s said in a statement.
Joshi said demand spikes for two categories during such situations. “People try to hoard medicines intended for chronic ailments like cardiovascular or metabolic disorders, in other words heart, lung and diabetes related medicines. The other category is acute therapy, which covers medicines like antibiotics and painkillers including topical ointments, bandages, cotton, isopropyl alcohol and other wound healing agents.”
The impact would be seen by the next week or so, said Dinesh Dua, former chairman of Pharmexcil.”Indian pharma may experience temporary export disruptions but potentially higher overall demand, especially if the war extends beyond a few weeks and governments start stockpiling medicines,” he said. Dua said Indian companies can benefit if they can ramp up production and exports to meet surge in demand. He said exporters dealing with Iran, Iraq or Syria may face delayed payments or currency settlement issues.
Israel imports bulk drugs and intermediates from India, while Iran is a buyer of generics. “War disruption could delay shipments or regulatory collaboration. Dubai functions as a regional re-export hub for pharmaceuticals to Africa and the Gulf. Any cargo disruption there affects secondary exports and stock movement,” Dua said. The bigger question according to Joshi is whether India can take advantage of this situation.
“It largely depends on our supply chain resilience as our self-reliance on certain raw materials and KSM is at a nascent stage. The initial impact would be more around logistics which can lead to manufacturing disruptions in case the war gets extended beyond March. India would be at an advantageous position as the Eastern side is less impacted as compared to the western hemisphere.”
