However, under several external factors — such as technological disruption or advancement, regulatory or policy changes, or economic shocks — the gig workforce may grow only to 32.5 million by 2047, a report points out.
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IMAGE: Swiggy and Zomato delivery boys. Photograph: ANI Photo
Driven by technological advancements, shifting labour market preferences, and the growing need for flexible work arrangements, the gig and platform workforce in the country is expected to grow to nearly 62 million by 2047 — constituting nearly 15 per cent of the total non-agricultural workforce, a new study by a government-run think tank shows.
The study by the labour ministry-affiliated VV Giri National Labour Institute (VVGNLI) used estimates from a 2022 NITI Aayog report on gig workers and applied the exponential smoothing Error, Trend, Seasonality model to make forecasts, as it gives more weight to recent observations.
“The estimate predicts a compounding growth pattern, with the number of gig workers more than doubling over the next 17 years, indicating that the sector will play a major role in employment generation in the Indian economy.
“Initially rooted in areas like ride-sharing and food delivery, it has expanded into various sectors including healthcare, education, creative services, and professional consulting, among others,” the study observed.
The Aayog report had said that in 2020, over 3 million workers were employed by roughly 11 platform companies in India.
This number is projected to grow to 23 million by 2030 — comprising 7 per cent of the total non-agricultural workforce.
However, the VVGNLI study also notes that under several external factors — such as technological disruption or advancement, regulatory or policy changes, or economic shocks — the gig workforce may grow only to 32.5 million by 2047.
“(But) assuming the aspirational trend, the sector is capable of generating 90.8 million gig jobs,” the study said.
The government study also calls for recognising the rights to collective bargaining and unionisation, as this offers better understanding of the algorithms that platforms use to assign tasks and determine pay.
“The workers must be free to establish or join collectives or unions so they can bargain collectively for better pay, insurance, working conditions, and more transparency within the platform economy,” the study notes.
Noting that gig workers are legally recognised in several countries including the UK, Canada, Spain, the Netherlands, France, and Denmark, the study calls for clarity in the classification of gig workers.
It emphasises the need to establish specific criteria to differentiate between employees and independent contractors, taking into account factors such as control over work, financial dependency, and job security.
“It has been revealed that platform workers struggle with the distinction between ‘workers’ and ‘independent contractors’ on a global scale.
“For them to access the safeguards of labour laws and social security, this differentiation is essential.
“To address this, it is imperative to secure their recognition as workers, particularly for those engaged full-time,” the study noted.
The study also calls for ensuring a minimum income and fair working hours, algorithmic accountability and fair task allocation, streamlined grievance and dispute resolution, worker empowerment through training and upskilling, and mandatory occupational health and safety standards.
“Establishing a statutory national registry for platform and gig workers, managed by both central and state governments, will help ensure that all of them have access to social security,” the study noted.
Feature Presentation: Ashish Narsale/Rediff
