Decoding Northeast Political Landscape And Issues Ahead Of Lok Sabha Polls 2024

Lok Sabha Elections 2024: The northeastern states individually may not have many seats between them, but the entire region sends 25 members to the Lok Sabha. Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, who is also the convener of the BJP-led North-East Democratic Alliance (NEDA), is confident of routing the Congress from the region and the saffron party winning 22 seats on its own. NEDA is considered to be a regional extension of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance in the Northeast. 

The 25 seats that will be up for grabs in the seven-phase polls starting April 19 are spread across the eight northeastern states — Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Mizoram, Tripura, Arunachal Pradesh, Manipur and Sikkim. While Assam has the highest number of Lok Sabha seats, Mizoram, Nagaland, and Sikkim have one seat each. Here’s the Lok Sabha seat distribution in the Northeast.

Lok Sabha Election 2019 In The Northeast

In 2019, the NDA won 18 of the 25 seats in the Northeast. The BJP won 14 seats while its allies won 4. In Assam, BJP won 9 of the 10 seats it contested. But its allies AGP and BPF failed to win even 1 seat. The BJP won all 4 seats in Arunachal and Tripura, besides 1 in Nagaland (the second Nagaland Lok Sabha seat went to its ally NPF’s kitty). The result was similar in Manipur. In Meghalaya, the Congress and the National People’s Party won 1 seat each. The Mizo National Front, the Nationalist Democratic Progressive Party, and the Sikkim Krantikari Morcha won in the single-seat states of Mizoram, Nagaland and Sikkim, respectively.

Decoding Assam’s Political Landscape

Fourteen of the 25 Lok Sabha seats in the Northeast are in Assam. As such, it becomes extremely important to get the maximum seats here. The BJP is currently the ruling party in Assam with the government being helmed by CM Himanta Biswa Sarma. This year, the BJP has fielded 11 candidates in Assam, leaving the rest for its smaller allies — the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) and the United People’s Party Liberal (UPPL).

Historically, the tea belt of Assam, comprising the seats of Kaliabar, Jorhat, Tezpur, Lakhimpur, and Dibrugarh, has played a key role in Lok Sabha elections. A strong voter base for the Congress, the tea belt switched allegiance in 2014, with only Kaliabor (now part of Kaziranga seat) voting for the Congress and throwing up an unprecedented result in the northeastern state.

The tea belt, so called because of the high density of tea gardens in the region, has, for a long time, been fighting for basic amenities. The tea garden workers, now categorised as OBC, also demand Scheduled Tribe status. Among the communities are members of various communities, such as Bhumij, Santhals, Sawras, Mundas, Oraons, Gonds, and, Kharias. These communities were uprooted from the neighbouring states during the British Raj and forced to work in the tea gardens. The ‘tea tribe’, or Adviasi community, is not able to get the ST status as it is not indigenous.

Five other communities — Tai Ahoms, Morans, Motoks, Chutias, and Koch Rajbongshis — are also pressing for ST status, a demand which has been pending for a long time for the six communities. The Congress is now trying to corner the BJP on the issue. Last year Congress candidate from Nowgong Pradyut Bordoloi questioned the Centre on the delay.

Despite the 2016 poll promise to include 6 indigenous communities from Assam in the ST list, which the then MoS Home Affairs @KirenRijiju said would be complete in 3 months – 8 years on the people of Assam are still waiting! Response from the Tribal Affairs Ministry to my Qs 👇 pic.twitter.com/sXnAtgySkE

— Pradyut Bordoloi (@pradyutbordoloi) July 24, 2023

Last month, Assam Congress president Bhupen Borah accused the BJP of not fulfilling any of its promises, including the grant of ST status to the six communities.

Major Issues Ahead Of Lok Sabha Elections In Northeast 

Along with ST status demand, the other issues that find prominence in Assam are the Citizenship (Amendment) Act, the illegal immigration of foreigners via the porous borders with Bangladesh and employment generation. 

Issues in other states are more varied in nature. The inner line permit implementation demand has been long pending in Meghalaya. Although the implementation of CAA eases the pressure of ‘protecting the identities of indigenous peoples’, the state wants ILP just as in the neighbouring states of Arunachal Pradesh, Manipur, Mizoram, and Nagaland.

In Arunachal, infrastructure and socio-economic development are major issues. But for a state that shares a border with China, the chief issue is border security. We saw how a teenager was abducted in 2022 by the Chinese PLA and recently, Beijing illegally renamed 30 areas in the state.  

Manipur faces the issue of ethnic clashes between the Kuki-Zo and Meitei communities. While the clashes are few an far apart now, the tensions prevail.

Mizoram, too, is bearing the brunt of the Manipur ethnic clashes as violence-hit Kuki-Zos sought shelter here. The issue has now spiralled and the demand for a separate ‘Greater Mizoram’ state, carved out of parts of Manipur, Mizoram, Assam, and Myanmar, for the Kuki Zo community is back in focus. Mizoram is also dealing with a refugee influx from neighbouring Myanmar.

The demand for a ‘Greater Tipraland’ for indigenous communities and certain tribes is at the forefront ahead of the elections in Tripura. The issue has gained more traction recently after Tipra Motha, the largest Opposition party in the state and which was formed on the basis of the demand, joined the BJP.

Nagaland, too, faces the demand for a separate state. The Eastern Nagaland People’s Organization (ENPO) has strengthened its demand for Frontier Nagaland Territory, claiming neglect of six districts. Protection of the indigenous identity of the Naga people is also a key poll issue. 

Sikkim is also dealing with an “identity” issue, with the ambit of the term “Sikkimese” being extended to include descendants of settlers. Earlier, the term was used to define the indigenous Lepchas, Nepalis, and Bhutias. However, a change in the Income Tax Act in 2023, included the old settlers to grant them tax exemptions. The issue has been a matter of debate since then.

Lok Sabha Elections 2024 In The Northeast

Both the BJP and the Congress are confident of wins in a majority of the seats. However, the BJP is on the front foot in Assam as it goes into the polls this year, with CM Himanta highlighting the “double-engine government” factor at every rally. Moreover, a shift in the tea belt’s allegiance has given a boost to the BJP.

The 2023 delimitation exercise has sent both parties scrambling. The Opposition alleged that the delimitation exercise had concentrated minority voters to a few pockets. It also alleged that the exercise was targeted to upset the balance where Congress was strong, viz Barpeta, Kaliabor, and Nagaon.

However, leaders in the BJP have also been reportedly upset. BJP heavyweight former Union minister Rajen Gohain resigned from the state Cabinet, alleging that his seat (Nagaon) was now minority dominated.

The Congress, on the other hand, is trying to rake up the CAA issue and is alleging unfair treatment to minorities.

In Manipur, however, the BJP could face a pushback due to its inability to control the violence. In Mizoram, too, there could be a loss in votes for the BJP over this issue and the matter of delay in ILP implementation.

With the Left and Congress weakened by infighting and the largest Opposition party joining the BJP, the saffron party will be hoping to keep the Tripura assembly polls momentum going.

The BJP in Sikkim, a state dominated by regional parties, has severed its alliance with the SKM and conducted an intense campaign, hoping to win the lone seat. This is a bold move in the wake of corruption allegations against the Prem Singh Tamang government in the state. However, with a horde of BJP leaders switching to SKM recently, the move could backfire.