The BJP peaked in the Hindi heartland in 2019 to get to 303, how can it possibly repeat its performance in 2024, after 10 years of anti-incumbency? This was a refrain in the Opposition as it made a case of bringing the BJP below the majority mark.
That is now up in the air – and the first takeaway from Verdict Day.
Having wrested Rajasthan and, surprisingly, even Chhattisgarh – which looked “safe” for the Congress – and having retained power in Madhya Pradesh with a convincing margin, the 2023 elections to five states underlines the formidable force the BJP has become. Indeed, its win in Bhopal where it has been in power for no less than four terms, shows that in Madhya Pradesh, the first political laboratory of the BJP that pre-dates Gujarat, there is almost no voter fatigue. Having an unyielding grip over the heart of India is bound to unleash its own dynamics.
So is 2024 a done deal for the BJP?
Six months, as the cliché goes, is a while in politics, but a hat-trick, as Prime Minister Narendra Modi called it in his “aabhar” speech certainly looks plausible rather than just possible.
Takeaway two. The BJP declared no one as its Chief Ministerial face in all these three states — even as it accommodated its CMs and former CMs, Shivraj Chouhan, Raman Singh and Vasundhara Raje Scindia, by giving them and their followers tickets.
Admittedly, no election is won on a single issue but since it was the Prime Minister who led the campaign from the front, clearly, his popularity in these states remains undimmed. The party hitched its train to the PM engine.
Moreover, the invocation of issues he would normally put to use in national polls — national pride, India’s growing stature globally, reclaiming the civilizational past, and even the sub-text of the emerging situation in Palestine — had resonance in these state polls in the heartland. During the campaign, Amit Shah repeatedly told rallies that if people wanted Modi in 2024, they should vote for him in the state polls. This time, the assurance of Modi as PM was stronger than doubts over who will be the CM.
Takeaway three. The Congress’s progress, under the leadership of Mallikarjun Kharge, is too slow and incremental – certainly not strong enough to challenge the BJP juggernaut, be it in message, ideas or organizational machinery.
Even in Telangana, the bright star in the Congress’s Sunday dark, the BJP doubled its vote share (14%). Around a year ago, the street talk in Hyderabad was that the fight was 50:50 between the BRS and the BJP and the Congress was not a big player.
But the Congress cashed in on the resentment over corruption and arrogance of the TRS regime. It was also helped by the support of the minorities and with a strong section of the TDP base moving to it.
In hindsight, the BJP may have given up on the state too quickly, probably in the hope of securing K Chandrashekhar Rao’s (KCR) support in the national elections. Since it no longer has a presence in the South, the BJP can now be expected to relook at the BRS (in Telangana) and Jagan Reddy’s YSR Congress (in Andhra Pradesh); it already has an understanding with the Janata Dal (S) of HD Deve Gowda (in Karnataka) and may go in to widen the NDA once again.
The Congress’s defeat in the Hindi states shrinks its leverage and perhaps this may make seat adjustments easier within the INDIA alliance but that’s of little comfort to an Opposition still struggling to come up with a convincing narrative.
Takeaway four could have far-reaching consequences for the Indian polity. The 2023 elections have underscored a geographical divide along political lines. The BJP is strong in the Hindi heartland and part of the west. (Gujarat and Goa and Maharashtra, though what happens in Maharashtra next year is uncertain).
The Congress and the Opposition parties are essentially in power in the South and in the eastern states (West Bengal and Orissa). With the delimitation exercise slated to take place in 2026, which is expected to reduce the number of Lok Sabha seats in the southern states and increase them in the Hindi-speaking states — there is growing apprehension in the southern states about its implications.
As of current seat tally and population projections, Chhattisgarh’s Lok Sabha seats could go up from 11 to 12, MP’s from 29 to 34 and Rajasthan’s from 25 to 32. In contrast, Telangana could drop from 17 to 15. Uttar Pradesh, the most populous state, could see among the highest increases in seats, from 80 to 92.
This will sharpen divides in an already strained and divided polity —with fewer political forces left to mitigate or moderate this potential minefield.
Finally, the fifth takeaway: women are getting a greater say in deciding who comes to power. The 2023 polls were driven largely by women and they are rapidly emerging as an important vote bank wooed by all.
The Ladli Behna Yojana in Madhya Pradesh is believed to have played a key role in Shivraj’s campaign; in Chhattisgarh, the BJP was better able to communicate its plan to give Rs 12,000 a year each to unmarried women than incumbent Bhupesh Baghel who promised a counter plan of Rs 15000 to all women. Ashok Gehlot’s health schemes and gas cylinders at a subsidized rate of Rs 500 were among the programmes which had traction with women and helped him fight back. Modi flagged women as a “caste” in his speech – that hasn’t translated to more seats for women yet but the force of the woman voter is one that’s irreversible and on the rise.