The Indian rupee experienced a significant dip, settling at 93.44 against the US dollar, as a confluence of geopolitical uncertainties in West Asia, fluctuating crude oil prices, and the Reserve Bank of India’s revised regulations on speculative trading weighed heavily on the currency.
Illustration: Dominic Xavier/Rediff
Key Points
- The rupee declined by 28 paise, closing at 93.44 against the US dollar, driven by a strong dollar and volatile crude oil prices.
- Uncertainties surrounding West Asia peace negotiations, particularly US-Iran talks, contributed to the rupee’s depreciation.
- The Reserve Bank of India’s partial withdrawal of directives on non-deliverable forward markets also impacted the local currency.
- Analysts predict the USD-INR spot price to trade between Rs 93.30 and Rs 93.90, with geopolitical clarity and RBI stance being key determinants.
- Foreign Institutional Investors offloaded equities worth Rs 1,918.99 crore, further adding pressure on the rupee.
The rupee declined 28 paise to close at 93.44 against the US dollar on Tuesday, weighed down by a steady American currency and volatile crude oil prices amid uncertainties over the progress of West Asia peace negotiations.
Positive domestic equity markets failed to boost local currency, which also had some impact of the Reserve Bank’s latest move to ease curbs on speculative bets in non-deliverable forward markets, forex analysts said.
RBI’s Policy Adjustments
The Reserve Bank on Monday partially withdrew directives taken on April 1 to curb excessive speculation in the rupee.
The banking regulator had capped the net open positions in non-deliverable forward markets at $100 million, mandating banks to comply by April 10.
Under revised directives, authorised dealers or banks can resume offering non-deliverable derivative contracts involving INR to resident or non-resident users, but must comply with certain restrictions on related-party transactions. Also, the $100-million cap in net open position is still effective.
At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened at 93.25 and fell to an intra-day low of 93.63 before ending the session 28 paise lower at 93.44 against the greenback.
On Monday, the rupee settled with a loss of 25 paise at 93.16 against the US dollar. The currency had gained 47 paise in the preceding two sessions.
Analyst Outlook and Geopolitical Factors
Anuj Choudhary, Research Analyst at Mirae Asset ShareKhan, said the rupee fell on uncertainty over US-Iran talks and a surge in crude oil prices. A strong dollar also pressured the rupee; however, positive global markets cushioned the downside.
“Traders may take cues from retail sales and ADP employment change data from the US. USD-INR spot price is expected to trade in a range of Rs 93.30 to Rs 93.90,” Choudhary said.
Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst – Commodity and Currency, LKP Securities, said the rupee traded weaker as recent RBI adjustments and partial rollback of earlier currency-support measures added pressure on the local unit.
“At the same time, the dollar remains steady while crude and gold are relatively stable, with markets closely watching the outcome of US-Iran ceasefire developments expected tomorrow.
“The rupee is likely to remain highly event-driven, with direction dependent on geopolitical clarity and RBI stance,” Trivedi said.
Global Market Influences
Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, rose 0.19 per cent to 98.09.
Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was trading 0.70 per cent down at $94.81 per barrel in futures trade.
Analysts attributed the volatility in crude prices to persistent worries over disruptions of supplies of oil from the Strait of Hormuz.
Also, the ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran is scheduled to expire on Wednesday.
In a latest development, Iran’s chief negotiator on Tuesday said Tehran would not negotiate in the face of threats, while US President Donald Trump hinted that he was in no rush to end the conflict with Iran.
In the domestic equity markets the 30-share Sensex rose 753.03 points, or 0.96 per cent, to settle at 79,273.33, while the Nifty rose 211.75 points, or 0.87 per cent, to 24,576.60.
Foreign Institutional Investors offloaded equities worth about Rs 1,918.99 crore on Tuesday, according to the exchange data.
