India’s telecom sector is entering 2026 with unmistakable momentum, with Reliance Jio and Bharti Airtel pulling decisively ahead on the back of consistent 5G adoption, attempts at aggressive home broadband expansion, and strong subscriber additions across mobile and fixed wireless access. Vi, formerly Vodafone Idea, meanwhile remains stuck in decline despite incremental 5G rollouts in some telecom sectors over the last few months, and continues to lose subscribers as well as revenue share.
The data from Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI), as well as analyst reports, paint the picture of a sector that’s increasingly seeing duopolistic consolidation, in mobile subscriptions as well as broadband adoption. The latter now includes fixed wireless access (FWA) relying on 5G mobile networks to build a broadband network for homes, the advantage being it doesn’t rely on a fibre infrastructure for installation. TRAI’s data for October 2025 pegs India’s mobile subscriber base at 1171.87 million (of this, 941.82 million are using 3G, 4G or 5G), up from 1170.44 million at the end of the month prior. In the same period, fixed wireless broadband subscriber base clocked in at 44.82 million, up from 44.40 million in September. The FWA base sees a 7.04% monthly increase as well, at 13.18 million and up from 12.31 million.
Mobile and 5G: A two-horse race
Following on 2024 as the year of nationwide 5G rollouts, 2025 has largely been about widespread adoption — affordable 5G plans even after tariff hikes a few months ago, and availability of 5G smartphones, being contributing factors. CLSA, a capital markets and investment group, in their latest India Telecoms sector outlook report estimates that close to 46% of Jio’s total subscriber base, which would mean about 234 million of the 506 million total subscribers, are 5G users. For Airtel’s 364 million subscribers, that ratio is relatively higher at 58%, or 289 million 5G users.
“Reliance Jio and Bharti Airtel 5G services ramp-up have added a combined 401 million 5G mobile subscribers and 3 percentage points revenue market share to 81% since launch. India 5G mobile penetration is already 42% of mobile data subscribers even as Bharti and Reliance Jio 5G tariff are at around 17% premium to 4G rates,” the report notes. For Vi, the delayed 5G expansion across 17 circles it has the spectrum for, has led to the telco relatively falling behind. Another contributing factor is the tariff option. Vi 5G introductory plan was at ₹299 which was around a 15% discount to duo but it has been selectively withdrawing the offer and replacing it with ₹349 plan similar as Jio and Airtel, the report further notes.
Jio’s 5G advantages in terms of bandwidth and network experience stemmed from the use of the 5G SA, or Standalone methodology, which does not rely on the existing 4G network. Airtel, till now has adopted the 5G NSA, or non-standalone network technology which builds on their 4G network. While there is a cost and rollout speed advantage, bandwidth and experience can sometimes fall slightly behind comparatively. Airtel is upgrading to 5G SA in phases, across telecom circles.
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CLSA indicates that Airtel’s current average revenue per user, or ARPU, a crucial metric, stands at ₹234, expected to increase to ₹250 by the close to financial year 2026 and to ₹292 a a year later. Reliance Jio’s ARPU stands at ₹196, with estimates pegging this to increase to ₹212 (close of financial year 2026) and ₹234 a year later. For Airtel, the higher paying and therefore premium customers, continue to hold importance. Vi’s ARPU, presently ₹176, is expected to increase to ₹193 by end of FY26.
Broadband: Next growth engine?
According to the latest TRAI data, Reliance Jio leads India’s wired and wireless broadband market share, with 508.34 million subscribers, followed by Bharti Airtel, with 312.53 million. Reliance offers the JioFiber and JioAirFiber products, while Airtel has the Xstream Fiber portfolio for wired and FWA products. Vi, is a distant third with 127.22 million subscribers, ahead of BSNL (34.49 million). Telecom players hope home broadband is where the next phase of rapid growth, and therefore monetisation, will play out. Jio has a lead, at this time.
HSBC Global Investment Research, in their latest India Telcos report, note that Jio has added 7.7 million home broadband subscribers year-to-date in 2025, compared with Airtel which has added 3.2 million in the same calendar year till now. “Jio has been able to widen its lead in home broadband due to its network investment and strong adoption of 5G FWA and UBR. We note that the Jio AirFiber (FWA + UBR) subscriber base surged to 10.2 million as of October 2025 and stood at 4 times Airtel’s 2.5 million subscribers,” the report states.
Analysts estimate that India’s home broadband subscriptions will grow 2.85 times to 114 million by the end of FY 2030. They believe 5G based FWA will be a key catalyst. “FWA adoption gathered pace over the last 12-15 months as equipment prices have come down and operators have strengthened their installation & distribution capabilities. We think telcos in India are well placed to capture a share of household entertainment spend with their bundled home broadband plans, which come with a rich content offering. Jio and Bharti Airtel are likely to be key beneficiaries,” they note.
The way India’s telecom sector is shaping up, Jio leads the market share race for mobile, 5G, FWA, and home broadband products, with Airtel a strong (and close, in many cases) second player focusing on premium subscribers and higher average revenue per user. Vi, weighed down by debt and limited 5G capacity, continues to lose share despite tariff experimentation and capital expenditure revival attempts. 2025 has given us a view of things — Jio and Airtel are leading, by quite some margin.
