Novo Nordisk’s patent for its GLP-1 (glucagon-like peptide-1) therapy expires on Saturday. As per industry estimates, the market for GLP1 drugs in India could expand to 15-20% in the next 12-18 months from 4-5% now, as the generic versions will be more affordable.
Experts said that though the generic versions of semaglutide will see the market for such therapy grow beyond the metros to smaller towns and cities, the euphoria among many drugmakers may fade soon as success will hinge on cold-chain strength, device quality and doctor network. They said the top six to eight brands are likely to dominate in the Indian market in as many months. “The top 5-10 brands will only survive…the bigger Indian companies…the rest will die their own death,” said Neeraj Tulara, diabetologist and founder of Bookurdoc Speciality Clinics. “Quality of device, cold chain, post-sale patient assistance, innovative techniques like the type of injection, ease of administration, will be important factors.”
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Among the companies that have lined up generic semaglutide launches are Dr Reddy’s, Sun Pharma, Eris, Zydus, Mankind, Alkem, MSN Laboratories, Intas Pharma and Micro Labs.
“Many of these companies have fantastic capacity to produce branded generics. But this is the first time that they are producing biologics that need proper cold chain maintenance,” Mumbai-based diabetologist Rajiv Kovil said. “When the patent goes off tomorrow, it’s more about the back-end capability – from cold chain maintenance to supply robustness.”
Industry data shows that penetration of GLP1 drugs is still very low in India, reaching only about 5% of people with diabetes and 4% of those suffering from obesity. This leaves a vast untapped pool in the country, which has over 100 million diabetics and 250 million obese individuals.
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The anti-obesity market in India is currently valued at ₹1,500 crore and is expected to touch ₹4,000-5,000 crore in the next 12-24 months and ₹8,000 crore by 2030, according to industry estimates. The generic drugmakers are expected to launch their versions of semaglutide in the ₹3,000-5,000 price range–more than half the cost of the innovator molecule.
Novo’s Ozempic is priced at ₹8,800-11,175, while its other semaglutide brand, Wegovy, costs ₹10,850-16,400 for a month. In comparison, Mounjaro (tirzepatide) from Eli Lilly costs anywhere between ₹13,000 and ₹26,000 per injection, based on the dosage. Each injection consists of four monthly shots.
With Novo’s diabetes and weight-loss drug semaglutide going off patent on Saturday, over 40 cos plan to launch more than 50 generic brands
Some doctors said that while initially the innovator brands will continue to dominate, going forward, price will be the key determinant for long-term usage for a market like India.
” If generics continue to deliver even 80-85% of a similar effect as compared to the innovator molecule, generics will flourish as they are much more affordable,” said Tulara. “Some people are not willing to continue for more than six months…They lose some weight and are dropping out because of the cost… Many of them will find the generics easier on the pocket,” he added.
With the launch of the generic versions, the number of doctors prescribing the therapy is estimated to expand to about 15,000 in the next one year from 1,200-1,500 now, driving access beyond the metro cities. “The eligible patient pool for the condition remains the same, but with increase in affordability, more eligible patients can be onboarded on the therapy,” said Sheetal Sapale, vice-president, commercial, PharmaTrac.
Regulatory Oversight Needed
However, doctors warned that with the flood of cheaper generics, the regulator must ensure there is no misuse.
“Misuse has to be controlled… Otherwise, with the rampant use of this, we will see a lot of side effects and problems. This has to be dispensed only on prescription and ideally written by a certain class of doctors,” said Tulara.
