Congress is almost certain to formally push back against President Donald Trump’s signature economic policy, as the House of Representatives looks poised to approve a resolution revoking tariffs on Canada as soon as Wednesday. Though the resolution has no chance of going into effect, it is the latest sign that Trump’s power is eroding.
On Tuesday evening, three Republicans joined Democrats to block a rule that would have barred the House from voting on the Canada resolution and others like it. The resolution, offered by Rep. Gregory Meeks (D., N.Y.), would end the levies Trump imposed by executive order on Canada last February. The GOP members who joined Democrats on Tuesday’s procedural vote are expected to join them on Wednesday in voting to kill those tariffs.
The resolution has a good chance of passing the Senate, where several moderate Republicans have long expressed reservations about Trump’s tariff push. But even if it passes there, Trump could veto it. There aren’t nearly enough votes in the House and Senate to override him.
The break in party unity, however, could be a sign that Trump, just in his second year back in the White House, is already entering the lame-duck portion of his presidency.
Last year, Americans “likely saw ‘Peak Trump’ – effectively the apex of President Donald Trump’s presidential power, where he was able to impose policies with a compliant Congress and with very little pushback from the Courts,” wrote Pimco head of public policy Libby Cantrill in a note on Tuesday.
Among the threats to Trump’s influence are the courts, which are just now nearing definitive rulings on many of his most controversial policies. Another is the 2026 election, where some GOP lawmakers might find it tempting to break with Trump’s more unpopular positions to preserve their reelection chances.
The White House didn’t respond to a request for comment on the tariff vote.
Last year, Trump managed to quell opposition from fiscal hawks to pass signature legislation extending tax cuts and adding new ones. The bill passed through the “reconciliation” process, which avoids a filibuster.
At the time the tax bill passed, some GOP leaders said they hoped to have other opportunities to pass legislation through the same process, which let them put in place partisan priorities without Democratic votes. Their last chance could be this year because Democrats are widely expected to retake the House of Representatives in the November elections.
On Tuesday, Trump acknowledged another bill likely wouldn’t be passed through the reconciliation process.
“We’ve gotten everything passed that we need for four years,” Trump said in an interview with Fox Business, arguing that his so-called One, Big, Beautiful Bill was a “four-year package.”
If most legislation is off the table, that will leave Trump with his executive powers, but there too he could face new constraints from the courts. The Supreme Court as soon as this month could issue a ruling on whether Trump abused his authority by imposing tariffs using emergency declarations. During oral arguments last year, some Republican-appointed justices appeared skeptical of the White House’s arguments in favor of using that authority.
If Congress passes the Canada resolution and Trump vetoes it, Supreme Court justices who were already skeptical of the executive branch’s tariff authority could become even more wary, wrote Veda Partners director of economic policy Henrietta Treyz in a research note on Wednesday.
“This will not go unnoticed by the Supreme Court whose decision on whether the President even has authority to impose tariffs via IEEPA is still outstanding,” Treyz wrote.
Trump’s approval ratings in the past year have tanked on every major issue.
This time last year, voters had a net positive approval rating of more than 10 points on Trump’s performance on immigration, crime, and the economy, according to polls by The Economist/YouGov. Now, more voters disapprove of his performance on each of those topics; a net 23% of voters disapprove of his handling of the economy.
As the elections get closer, public opinion could be one of the biggest obstacles to Trump getting anything done.
Write to Joe Light at joe.light@barrons.com
