New Delhi: Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Friday tabled the Economic Survey 2024-25 in Parliament and highlighted the country’s economic performance and shaping expectations for the upcoming Union Budget. FM Sitharaman in the survey projected India’s economy to grow between 6.3 per cent and 6.8 per cent in FY26.
The survey said the fundamentals of the domestic economy remain robust, with a strong external account, calibrated fiscal consolidation and stable private consumption. On balance of these considerations, we expect that the growth in FY26 would be between 6.3 and 6.8 per cent.
The survey noted that food inflation is expected to ease in Q4 FY25 due to the seasonal decline in vegetable prices and the arrival of the Kharif harvest. A good Rabi production is also expected to help keep food prices in check in the first half of FY26. However, adverse weather conditions and rising international agricultural prices pose risks to inflation.
Meanwhile, global energy and commodity prices have softened, making the core inflation outlook stable. However, uncertainties in the global political and economic environment remain a challenge.
The survey also added that India’s foreign exchange reserves remain strong, covering 90 per cent of external debt and providing an import cover of over ten months. The reserves increased from USD 616.7 billion in January 2024 to USD 704.9 billion in September 2024 before moderating to USD 634.6 billion as of January 3, 2025. The stability in capital flows has played a key role in supporting India’s external strength.
The survey also highlighted significant growth in the formal employment sector. Net Employees’ Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO) subscriptions have more than doubled from 61 lakh in FY19 to 131 lakh in FY24.
As per the convention, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman tabled the pre-budget detailed state of the economy document in the Parliament, a day ahead of the Budget presentation for the next financial year – 2025-26.
The Economic Survey document, prepared by the Economic Division of the Department of Economic Affairs in the Ministry of Finance and formulated under the supervision of the chief economic adviser, gives insights into the state of the economy and various indicators of 2024-25 (April-March) and some outlook for the next fiscal.
The Economy Survey document may also give some idea about the tone and texture of the actual Budget for 2025-26, to be presented on Saturday.
The first economic survey reportedly came into existence in 1950-51, when it used to be a part of the budget documents. In the 1960s, it was separated from the Budget documents and presented the day before the Union Budget.
In 2022, the central theme was ‘Agile Approach’, which emphasized India’s economic response to the COVID-19 pandemic shock. In 2023, it was ‘recovery complete’, when the economy staged a broad-based recovery from pandemic-induced contraction, Russian-Ukraine conflict, and inflation, and ascended to the pre-pandemic growth path. In 2024, it focussed on economic resilience. Typically, along with the sectoral chapters, the Survey document also adds new need-based chapters that call for special focus.
