The Indian rupee experienced a significant depreciation, settling at 93.35 against the US dollar, as escalating West Asia tensions following failed US-Iran peace talks and a surge in crude oil prices triggered a global flight to the greenback and foreign capital withdrawal from domestic equities.
Illustration: Dominic Xavier/Rediff
Key Points
- The rupee depreciated by 52 paise, settling at 93.35 against the US dollar, primarily due to failed US-Iran peace talks and escalating West Asia tensions.
- A potential US blockade of Iranian ports has fuelled uncertainties over the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a surge in Brent crude oil prices to $102.52 per barrel.
- The geopolitical instability and rising crude oil prices are prompting foreign institutional investors to offload equities, further weakening the Indian currency.
- Forex analysts expect the rupee to trade in a range of 93-93.80, with continued pressure from a strong dollar and elevated energy prices.
- The Asian Development Bank (ADB) warned that a prolonged West Asia conflict could undermine India’s macroeconomic performance through higher energy prices, trade disruptions, and weaker remittance inflows.
The rupee slumped 52 paise to settle at 93.35 against the US dollar on Monday after a failed US-Iran peace talk fuelled uncertainties in West Asia, leading to a surge in crude oil prices and a global chase for the greenback.
According to forex analysts, uncertainties over the opening of Strait of Hormuz following the US announcement to blockade Iranian ports further intensified withdrawal for foreign capital from domestic equities, weakening the Indian currency.
Rupee’s Performance and Market Outlook
At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened at 93.30 against the US dollar and moved between a low of 93.40 and a high of 93.25 during the session.
The unit closed the session at 93.35 against the greenback, registering a loss of 52 paise from its previous closing level.
On Friday, the rupee settled 32 paise lower at 92.83 against the US dollar.
The forex market will be closed on Tuesday on account of Baba Saheb Ambedkar Jayanti.
Anuj Choudhary, Research Analyst at Mirae Asset ShareKhan, said the rupee depreciated on risk-aversion in the global markets as talks between the US and Iran failed over the weekend.
Surge in crude oil prices and a strong dollar also pressured the rupee.
“Rising US dollar and surge in crude oil prices may further pressurise the rupee.
“FII may also continue to sell from the capital markets. USD-INR spot price is expected to trade in a range of 93-93.80,” Choudhary said.
According to Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst – Commodity and Currency, LKP Securities, “Ongoing geopolitical tensions and risks around the Strait of Hormuz are keeping energy prices elevated, which is adding to inflation concerns and limiting rupee recovery.
“The overall bias remains weak, with the rupee expected to trade in a range of 92.75-94.00 in coming session.”
Global Market Impact and Economic Projections
Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was higher by 0.32 per cent at 98.75.
Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was trading higher by 7.69 per cent at $102.52 per barrel in futures trade after the US said it would blockade Iranian ports beginning Monday.
According to the US Central Command, the blockade would be “enforced impartially against vessels of all nations” entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas.
However, ships travelling between non-Iranian ports will be allowed to transit Strait of Hormuz.
On the domestic equity market front, Sensex declined 702.68 points or 0.91 per cent to settle at 76,847.57, while the Nifty tumbled 207.95 points or 0.86 per cent to 23,842.65.
Foreign Institutional Investors offloaded equities worth Rs 1,983.18 crore on Monday, according to exchange data.
Meanwhile, the country’s forex reserves jumped by $9.063 billion to $697.121 billion during the week ended April 3, 2026, as per the RBI.
In the week ended March 27, the overall reserves had dropped by $10.288 billion to $688.058 billion.
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) on Friday said a prolonged conflict in West Asia could undermine India’s macroeconomic performance through multiple channels, including higher energy prices, trade flow disruptions, and weaker remittance inflows.
In its Asian Development Outlook April 2026 report, the ADB projected India’s GDP growth to remain “robust” at 6.9 per cent in the current fiscal year, and rise to 7.3 per cent in the next, driven by strong domestic demand, and supported by easing financing conditions and lower US tariffs on Indian goods.
