Power utilities may report moderate growth in earnings for Q3FY25.
Generation is up 3 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) in Q3 on lower cooling demand and high base, to 429 billion units (BU).
Peak demand was steady at 224 Gw in Q3FY25, a 10 per cent decline from the record highs of 250 Gw in May 2024.
Coal-based generation held steady at 319 BU and hydro generation surged by 27 per cent to 34 BU. Gas-based generation fell by 20 per cent to 5.4 BU.
Renewable generation rose 14 per cent to 47 BU. Year-to-date, generation has increased 5 per cent to 1,387 BU.
Global coal prices are down due to oversupply and weak demand in China.
The e-auction premium was in the range of 65-70 per cent in Q3FY25.
Trading volume grew 16 per cent Y-o-Y to 30 BU in Q3FY25, which contributed to lower prices on the exchanges.
In the day-ahead market (DAM), average prices for Q3FY25 stood at Rs 3.71 per unit, a 26 per cent decline.
Renewable energy tenders issued in Q3FY25 dropped by 51 per cent Y-o-Y to 18 Gw.
Battery storage tenders gained traction, up 320 per cent to 1,825 Mw.
Around 155 Mw of solar capacity was commissioned by NTPC in Q3.
It recorded a 3.82 per cent Y-o-Y increase in generation to 326 BU. It has an ambitious target of 60 Gw of renewable capacity (RE) by 2032.
The management plans to commission 16 Gw of RE over the next three years.
Power Grid Corporation of India has a capex and capitalisation guidance of Rs 18,000 crore for FY25.
Its capex and capitalisation targets of Rs 25,000-30,000 crore in FY26 with a project pipeline of Rs 2 trillion in 7 8 years. In Tata Power, expect revenue to rise 11 per cent Y-o-Y and net profit by 13 per cent.
Generation for JSW Energy increased 12 per cent to 4,600 MU. JSW Energy aims to achieve 10 Gw operational capacity by FY25 and currently has 7.7 Gw.
It also has 16.2 GWh of locked-in energy storage capacity through battery energy storage system and hydro pumped storage project.
Revenue and net profit may likely increase 12 per cent and 31 per cent, respectively.
In NHPC, hydro generation for Q3 rose 27 per cent Y-o-Y.
Overall generation increased 4 per cent Y-o-Y to 3,762 MU. Revenue and net profit may rise 7 per cent and 8 per cent, respectively.
Torrent Power’s generation declined 27 per cent Y-o-Y to 1,147 MU on reduced generation from its gas-based plants.
Revenue and net profit are likely to decline 15 per cent and 9 per cent, respectively.
Volume momentum continues for IEX in Q3. Expect a 16 per cent Y-o-Y rise in revenue and net profit by 14 per cent.
Generation for SJVN increased 12 per cent to 1,337 MU in Q3FY25.
Revenue is expected to grow by 8 per cent Y-o-Y while net profit may increase by 12 per cent. It has lowered FY25 capacity addition target to 1,800 Mw.
Coal India s production increased by 1.5 per cent Y-o-Y to 202 million tonnes in Q3FY25.
Its off-take increased 1.5 per cent Y-o-Y to 194 million tonnes in Q3FY25.
Expect revenue to increase by 1 per cent Y-o-Y and net profit by 5 per cent. For NLC India, generation declined 6 per cent to 4,411 MU.
It aims to expand mining capacity to 104 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) from 50 mtpa currently. Revenue and net profit may decline 5 per cent and 1 per cent, respectively.
CESC reported a 9.8 per cent Y-o-Y rise in revenue to Rs 3,600 crore in Q3FY25.
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda) rose by 76 per cent Y-o-Y to Rs 610 crore. Operating profit margin improved to 17 per cent from 11 per cent in Q3FY24.
Interest expenses grew 14.5 per cent Y-o-Y to Rs 340 crore, and net profit declined 6.3 per cent to Rs 280 crore.
CESC plans to invest in 3.2 Gw of hybrid RE projects in the next three years through its subsidiary, Purvah Green Power.
Around 1,200 Mw is under implementation.
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