Trump’s willingness to negotiate with Russia over the ongoing war in Ukraine, while bypassing Europe and Ukraine itself, has raised alarm. US Vice President, JD Vance, shocked many at the recent Munich Security Forum with harsh criticism of the European Union. This shift in US policy has also prompted Europe to consider strengthening its own defence capabilities which would effectively mean an alternative to Nato.
The Ukraine war and the thaw in US-Russia ties have led many to believe that the future of Nato is in jeopardy.
What is Nato?
Founded in 1949, the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation was formed by 12 nations to counter the threat to European security posed by the Soviet Union during the Cold War. Dealing with Moscow is in its DNA. Keeping the peace outside the Euro-Atlantic area is not.
NATO’s ranks have grown since the Washington Treaty was signed 75 years ago – to 32 countries after Sweden joined last year, worried by an increasingly aggressive Russia. NATO’s collective security guarantee – Article 5 of the treaty – underpins its credibility. It’s a political commitment by all member countries to come to the aid of any member whose sovereignty or territory might be under attack. Hegseth has now raised doubts about the US commitment to that pledge, although he did say that his country is not planning to leave the alliance. NATO’s doors are open to any European country that wants to join and can meet the requirements and obligations. Importantly, NATO takes its decisions by consensus, so every member has a veto.
The United States is the most powerful member. It spends much more on defence than any other ally and far outweighs its partners in terms of military muscle. So Washington drives the agenda. NATO’s day-to-day work is led by former Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte.
Can Nato fall apart?
A few weeks ago, US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth, the most powerful member of NATO, threw the world’s biggest military alliance into disarray, raising troubling questions about America’s commitment to European security. Hegseth told almost 50 of Ukraine ‘s Western backers on Wednesday that he had joined their meeting “to directly and unambiguously express that stark strategic realities prevent the United States of America from being primarily focused on the security of Europe.”“Now is the time to invest because you can’t make an assumption that America’s presence will last forever,” Hegseth said.
Admiral James Stavridis, an American who served as Nato’s Europe commander from 2009-2013, said recently that we could be witnessing the “last days” of the alliance and the start of a new “European Treaty Organisation”. “We could be looking at the last days of Nato,” Admiral Stavridis told CNN. “This is a gut issue about who are you going to support? A democracy that’s under attack, or are you going to support a dictator in Moscow?
“This is going to drive a wedge deep into the heart of the alliance and it’s going to bleed over beyond Ukraine – as to whether the United States can be trusted as a partner,” he said. “We could see the end of Nato and the start of what might be called the European Treaty Organisation, ETO.”
A Nato without the US?
Trump’s bonhomie with Putin and his sidelining of Zelensky have made European leaders doubt American commitment to Nato. Friedrich Merz, who is set to become Germany’s next chancellor after the victory of his party in recent election, has warned Nato could be finished and Europe must prepare to build an alliance “independent” from the US. “My absolute priority will be to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible so that, step by step, we can really achieve independence from the USA,” he said.
“I never thought I would have to say something like this on a television program. But after Donald Trump’s statements last week at the latest, it is clear that the Americans, at least this part of the Americans, this administration, are largely indifferent to the fate of Europe.”
“I am very curious to see how we are heading towards the Nato summit at the end of June… whether we will still be talking about Nato in its current form or whether we will have to establish an independent European defence capability much more quickly,” Merz said.
AP reported a few weeks ago that NATO is testing its ability to rapidly deploy across eastern Europe – without direct US assistance – as Washington shifts its approach toward European defense and the war in Ukraine. The six-week Steadfast Dart 2025 exercises across Bulgaria, Romania and Greece are taking place with some 10,000 troops from nine nations and represent the largest NATO operation planned this year. The US absence from the exercises came as European nations scramble to build greater military self-sufficiency over their concerns about the Trump administration’s commitment to common defense and demands for increased European military spending.
A report from think tanks Bruegel and the Kiel Institute for the World Economy warns that the US military’s combat power cannot simply be replaced by an equivalent number of European troops. The gap in capability, structure, and strategic assets is significant, and without the US, Europe’s defence would be dramatically weaker.
Currently, 100,000 US troops are stationed in Europe, with plans for up to 200,000 reinforcements in the event of war. Their combat power, however, far exceeds that of European forces. “The combat power of 300,000 US troops is substantially greater than the equivalent number of European troops distributed over 29 national armies,” the report notes. Unlike fragmented European forces, American troops operate under a unified command with access to superior strategic assets such as space-based intelligence and long-range aviation—capabilities Europe lacks. To close this gap, Europe would need to recruit and train at least 300,000 additional troops while vastly improving its defence coordination. The report estimates that Europe would need to spend an additional €250 billion annually—equivalent to 3.5% of GDP—on defence. This includes investments in weapons, transport, communications, and intelligence.
At the recent Munich Security Conference, discussions resurfaced about the possibility of a common European defence policy, a concept that has remained dormant since the European Union’s creation in 1999. This idea suggests the potential for a Nato-like military alliance in Europe that could operate independently of North American involvement, particularly the US and Canada. French President Emmanuel Macron also advocated for a European-led security force in Ukraine.
Shairee Malhotra, deputy director of the strategic studies programme at the Observer Research Foundation (ORF), has told TOI recently that she believes the formation of a Nato-like army for Europe is unlikely.
“Instead, what may gain greater salience is the EU effort to develop the continent’s defence industrial capabilities. Supplementing national capitals’ efforts to strengthen and spend more on defence, the EU has undertaken initiatives such as the European Defence Industry Programme with a budget of €1.5bn and EDIRPA [European Defence Industry Reinforcement through Common Procurement Act] that focuses on joint procurement.
“The EU also appointed its first commissioner for defence with plans to create a European Defence Union to upgrade the armed forces of member states, increase capacity and develop a functioning single market for defence in the wake of American retrenchment,” Malhotra said.
(With inputs from agencies and TOI)
