Maldives’ run-off presidential poll tomorrow; why India, China will keep close watch

Ties with India and China is said to be weighing heavily on the postal ballot choices, experts said, as the key contestants have brought geopolitics into the centrestage of their electoral campaigns.

While incumbent President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih has strengthened the country’s bonhomie with New Delhi in his five-year tenure so far, the opposition camp led by rival presidential candidate Mohamed Muizzu have sharpened their anti-India rhetoric, and hinted at restoring the strong pro-Beijing ties that existed between 2013 and 2018.

Solih, who heads the Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP), had secured 39 percent votes in the first round of polls held on September 9. Muizzu, a former mayor of capital Male who now heads the Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM), had bagged 46 percent of the electoral share. 

Exciting news! Mint is now on WhatsApp Channels. Subscribe today by clicking the link and stay updated with the latest financial insights!” Click here!

Since neither of the candidates could cross the 50 percent-mark, a runoff poll featuring only Solih and Muizzu in the contest was scheduled for September 30. Although the latter had a 7 percentage point lead over the sitting president, experts said that the contest will be extremely close as Maldives has only 283,000 eligible voters, and the two leaders were separated by only 15,000 votes in the first round.

What’s at stake for India, China

Former Maldives president Abdulla Yameen had, during his tenure from 2013-2018, took a step away from traditional benefactor India and steered the island-nation towards China. Male become a member of Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), signed a free trade agreement with it, and was reportedly exploring a security and strategic tie-up which could have given the Xi Jinping-led regime an edge in the region that is crucial for east-west maritime trade.

Turning towards China meant a steady stream of foreign investment inflow, as Beijing pumped in billions of dollars into the country’s infrastructure. Among the marquee projects developed using Chinese funds is the $200 million bridge connecting capital Male with the international airport. The project was executed under Muizzu’s watch.

The Yameen-led government, however, came under intense criticism for taking hefty loans from China. Maldivian officials who spoke to BBC said the country still owed $1.1 billion-$1.4 billion to China as of 2020.

The Chinese “debt trap”, along with the accusations against Beijing of attempting to interfere in the country’s governance and undermining its sovereignty, was among the factors that led to Solih’s surprise victory in the 2018 polls. 

Since Yameen was voted out, Maldives renewed its strong ties with India. But this came at the cost of distancing away from Beijing, analysts underline. After Sohil’s victory, India had offered an assistance of $1 billion to repay a part of the Chinese debt.

India is said to have invested an estimated $2 billion in the country’s infrastructure in recent years, in the form of loans and grants. Solih’s defeat could nullify the efforts undertaken by New Delhi to increase its influence, and could instead propell Beijing as the country’s primary benefactor, experts said.

‘India first’ vs ‘India out’

Solih’s government, however, drew flak from the opposition over his foreign policy that has been described as “India first”. The policy began drawing criticism in 2021, when Maldivian defence force said about 75 Indian military personnel were located in the country to maintain and operate an aircraft that was provided as an aid in 2020.

While New Delhi maintained that the aircraft was to only be used for relief and rescue missions, and emergency evacuations, the opposition alleged a conspiracy to meddle in the security affairs of the island country. Yameen, in 2022, launched an “India out” campaign, alleging that the government had become a “puppet of a New Delhi” and was allowing the stationing of Indian military personnel on the country’s soil.

Solih had banned the campaign, calling it baseless and a “threat to national security”. However, the opposition succeeded in escalating the anti-India rhetoric.

Yameen could not enter the polling fray as he has been convicted in a money laundering case. Muizzu, however, is considered as his close political ally and received his backing for the presidential campaign.  

According to Ahmed Shaheed, a former Maldives foreign minister, the election outcome could be a setback for India if Solih loses. Although the opposition would not snap ties with India as indicated in their sharp rhetoric, but they would try to balance the equations between New Delhi and Beijing, he suggested while speaking to The Guardian. 

“Even if there is a government change, India will likely remain a very strong partner,” he said. However, considering the amount of investment made by New Delhi  over the past five years, “it’s all for India to lose rather than China to gain.”

A section of analysts, however, doubt whether Muizzu, if elected, would remain equidistant from the two Asian powers. A potential pro-China shift in foreign policy was indicated after he had, in an online meeting with Chinese Communist Party representatives last year, said his party would “script a further chapter of strong ties between our two countries” if it returns to power.

“Exciting news! Mint is now on WhatsApp Channels ? Subscribe today by clicking the link and stay updated with the latest financial insights!” Click here!

Updated: 29 Sep 2023, 10:55 PM IST