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The recently concluded Voter Rights Yatra has given the opposition bloc some momentum, but the real test lies ahead: negotiating a credible and cohesive seat-sharing arrangement.
Bihar assembly elections 2025: Opposition carries out Voter Adhikar Yatra in Bihar (PTI Image)
As Bihar heads toward another high-stakes assembly election, the Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance) finds itself at a familiar crossroads, balancing ambition with accommodation. The recently concluded Voter Rights Yatra has given the opposition bloc some momentum, but the real test lies ahead: negotiating a credible and cohesive seat-sharing arrangement.
The early signals are telling: the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), the alliance’s largest partner, is expected to scale down from the 144 seats it contested in 2020 to somewhere around 135–140 this time. The Congress too may contest fewer seats—possibly 50–60, down from 70 last time. The Communist Party of India (Marxist–Leninist) is pushing for a bigger share, demanding 40 seats as opposed to the 19 it fought earlier. Mukesh Sahni’s VIP is aiming even higher, with a claim of 60 seats, although internal discussions have pegged its share at around 18–20. CPI and CPM may end up with token representations.
The arithmetic underscores a paradox: while the Grand Alliance needs to project unity, the tug-of-war over seats is inevitable. Each party wants to expand its footprint, yet the total pie remains the same. If past elections are any guide, seat-sharing squabbles have a way of weakening the alliance’s electoral punch.
History also weighs heavily. Since 2005, whichever camp Nitish Kumar has chosen has swept the state. With Kumar now firmly aligned with the NDA, the Grand Alliance cannot afford public discord. Even in 2020, when the NDA and Mahagathbandhan fought a neck-and-neck battle, the margins were slim enough to remind opposition leaders how critical unity and clarity are in Bihar’s fractured polity.
The Congress insists there will be “no disputes,” but its past record in negotiations suggests otherwise. CPI-ML, emboldened by its ground mobilization, is unlikely to settle quietly for fewer seats. And RJD, the natural anchor of the alliance, faces the delicate task of keeping allies satisfied without diluting its own dominance.
The challenge before the Mahagathbandhan is therefore not just electoral arithmetic; it is political chemistry. Can Lalu Yadav’s RJD, Congress, Left allies, and smaller partners rise above their competitive instincts to present a common front? Or will ambition get the better of pragmatism, handing an edge to the NDA even before the campaign begins?
The Voter Rights Yatra may have energised the cadre, but seat-sharing will decide whether that energy translates into a winning formula—or fizzles out in internal squabbles.
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