ICICI Securities expects Jio Platforms’ ensuing IPO to fetch “premium valuations”, as was the case in the high-profile equity raise of FY21, and has pegged the company’s equity value at $148 billion by September 2027.
IMAGE: Mukesh Ambani, right, with wife Nita Ambani and elder son Akash Ambani. Photograph: Shailesh Andrade/Reuters
The brokerage has also raised valuation estimates for Indian telecom operators under its coverage, citing “renewed optimism” driven by stronger financial and business fundamentals across the sector.
Friday’s report upgrading telcos takes into account an improved tariff structure and a renewed push for 5G adoption, which extends premiumisation trends, as well as JPL’s proposed listing, with a “possible positive influence on valuations”.
It is pertinent to note that Jio Platforms, the entity that houses Reliance Industries’ telecom and digital businesses, is gearing up for an initial public offering (IPO) and a stock market listing in the first half of 2026.
The share sale is widely expected to be the biggest in the country’s capital markets’ history.
At the annual shareholder meeting on August 29, RIL chairman Mukesh Ambani had said: “I am sure that it will be a very attractive opportunity for all investors,” and promised that Jio’s plans for the future are “even more ambitious”.
Ambani had said the IPO will demonstrate Jio’s ability to create the same quantum of value as global counterparts.
In its note on Friday, ICICI Securities said: “We expect JPL IPO can come at premium valuations, which was also the case during JPL’s dilution,” citing the company’s equity raise in FY21 at a valuation of $65–70 billion.
JPL is currently 66.3 per cent owned by Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL).
JPL had earlier raised about Rs 1,52,056 crore from 13 high-profile investors, namely Facebook, Google, Silver Lake, Vista Equity Partners, General Atlantic, KKR, Mubadala, ADIA, TPG, L Catterton, Public Investment Fund of Saudi Arabia, Intel Capital and Qualcomm Ventures, for a total consideration of 32.9 per cent stake.
Facebook (now Meta) holds a 10 per cent stake in Jio Platforms, while Google has another 7.7 per cent.
PE investors have the remaining 16 per cent.
JPL had clinched higher valuation multiples that time vis-a-vis peers due to dominant market leadership in mobility, rising opportunity from fixed broadband, investment in digital services, no legacy issues/litigation (negligible contingent liabilities) and leverage from group entities (content etc).
For JPL consolidated, it is factoring EBITDA, and PAT CAGRs of 18.1 per cent, and 21.1 per cent over FY25–28.
“We assign 16x adjusted EBITDA to JPL, resulting in an equity value of $148 billion for Sep’27E (estimated),” it said.
JPL, it noted, is also driving new business from content, storage, digital enterprise solutions, managed services for MSME to AI deployment powered by Reliance Intelligence – frontiers that could create more value over the medium term.
“We conservatively estimate JPL’s (non-connectivity) net profit CAGR of 46.7 per cent over FY25–28E,” it said.
The estimates for JPL, said the note, do not factor in an upside from its ‘tech stack’ wherein the company has shown strong progress, established rollout at scale for 5G, Unlicensed Band Radio Fixed Wireless Access (UBR-FWA), and its patents for 6G.
UBR-FWA alone could create an opportunity to serve about 3.9 billion people in under-penetrated fixed broadband markets.
