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Here’s a breakdown of what prompted these attacks and what it holds for the future.
Tit-for-Tat Strikes Target Separatist Groups
The recent tit-for-tat attacks on Tuesday and Thursday were directed at two Baluch separatist groups operating on either side of the Iran-Pakistan frontier. These strikes have not only jeopardized diplomatic ties between the nations but also raised concerns due to their historical wariness, particularly concerning militant assaults. The motives behind these attacks may also be linked to the domestic challenges each country is currently facing.
Middle East Unrest Amplified
The assaults come at a time when the Middle East is grappling with the conflict between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip. Simultaneously, Iran’s allies and proxies in the region, forming the “axis of resistance,” have intensified hostilities against Israeli forces and their allies. This further complicates the geopolitical landscape in the region.How it startedThe sequence of events unfolded on Tuesday when Iran executed strikes on the Sunni militant group Jaish al-Adl in Pakistan’s Balochistan province. The attack resulted in casualties, including two children, as reported by Pakistani authorities. Iran claimed to have targeted only Iranian terrorists on Pakistani soil, leading to a swift denouncement by Pakistan, citing a violation of international law and bilateral relations.
How Pakistan chose to retaliate
In response, Pakistan launched operation ‘Marg Bar Sarmachar’ on Thursday, conducting precision military strikes on alleged separatist hideouts in Sistan and Baluchestan. The operation, involving killer drones, rockets, loitering munitions, and stand-off weapons, resulted in casualties on both sides. The strikes focused on the Balochistan Liberation Force, situated over 80 kilometers inside Iranian territory.
Old phenomenon or new escalation?
While confrontations between Iran and Pakistan along the border are not new, the recent willingness to target locations across the border without prior notification is unprecedented. The strikes have pushed the delicate relationship between the two nations into a serious crisis, with experts expressing concerns about the scale of the conflict.
Is Iran seeking regional hegemony?
Experts believe that broader regional conflicts have emboldened Iran to proactively pursue targets beyond its borders. Recent ballistic missile launches at Iraq and Syria, coupled with ongoing conflicts involving Israel, reflect Iran’s efforts to assert regional dominance. The geopolitical landscape is further complicated by the delicate balance the United States is attempting to maintain.
What about the Baloch people?
The Baloch people, residing at the intersection of Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Iran, have a long history of desiring independence. Insurgencies persist as they resist governance from Islamabad and Tehran. Economic grievances, marginalization, and exclusion from projects like the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) contribute to their unrest.
Sunni-Shia divide and Afghanistan factor
The Sunni-Shia rivalry adds complexity to Iran’s relationship with Saudi Arabia, a key ally of Pakistan. Additionally, the situation in Afghanistan influences both nations, with concerns about militancy spillover and the refugee crisis. The rise of the Taliban presents challenges and opportunities for Iran and Pakistan.
Could a Iran-Pakistan war break out?
As the highly volatile situation plays out, with Iran’s recent missile strike on Pakistan has prompted concerns about the possibility of a larger conflict. Reports suggest that China has intervened in an attempt to mediate between the two countries, both of which it considers friends. The timing of Iran’s provocation is particularly delicate for Pakistan, as the country is currently under a weak caretaker government and grappling with numerous economic challenges.
Ideally, Pakistan should avoid getting further entangled in a conflict with Iran. However, the situation is complicated by the dominant role of the military in Pakistan. The military’s popularity has suffered due to the removal and imprisonment of Imran Khan, a leader who enjoyed significant public support.
To regain its standing among Pakistanis, the military must adopt an assertive stance, which explains its decision to launch a larger retaliatory strike against Iran. Any additional aggression from Iran is likely to be met with an even stronger response from the Pakistani military, as it cannot afford to allow its credibility to further diminish among the populace.
Previously, Iran had viewed Pakistan’s large Shia population as a deterrent against potential aggression. However, given that Iran initiated the conflict, the Pakistani military is unlikely to be deterred by this factor.
As told to NYT, Husain Haqqani, a former Pakistani ambassador and diplomacy scholar, highlighted the dilemma Pakistan faces. He warned that if Pakistan retaliates, it risks becoming embroiled in Middle East conflicts it has thus far managed to avoid. On the other hand, if Pakistan refrains from retaliating, it may be perceived as weak, which could have consequences for the prestige of its armed forces.
Adding to Pakistan’s concerns, its relations with both India and Taliban-ruled Afghanistan have deteriorated. Last year, Pakistan expelled a significant number of illegal Afghan residents, further straining its ties with Afghanistan. With three hostile neighbors, Pakistan finds itself in a precarious position.
Furthermore, its already fragile economy makes it unlikely to sustain a prolonged war against Iran without financial support, particularly from the United States, which has already invested billions of dollars in the Ukrainian conflict.
While the possibility of the Iran-Pakistan conflict escalating into a full-scale war cannot be dismissed, much will depend on the stances of the US and Russia, who respectively support Pakistan and Iran. As tensions continue to rise, the international community closely watches the developments in this volatile region.
What’s next?
The mutual strikes between Iran and Pakistan raise the risk of a wider regional conflict. With strategic ties and rivalries with other Middle East actors, the situation remains delicate. Balancing interests and loyalties while avoiding being drawn into a conflict is a challenge for Pakistan, especially with its intricate relationships in the Middle East and beyond.
The missile exchanges between Iran and Pakistan intensify an already complex geopolitical situation, with potential ramifications beyond their borders. The region braces for further developments as the world watches closely.
