Western allies believe Iran has most likely added new-build Russian weapons to its inventory and reconstituted large swathes of its missile arsenal during the eight-week ceasefire, giving the Islamic Republic the firepower to strike back at nearly full strength if hostilities resume.
Tehran has about three-quarters of the munitions it had before the war and can easily build it up further, according to intelligence assessments. That includes unspecified Russian missiles that probably came off the line in the last year, one of the assessments said.
Russia’s Ministry of Defense didn’t respond to a request for comment.
US President Donald Trump said last week that Iran only had 21%-22% of its missiles remaining.
Intelligence estimates in March said Iran had about 60% of its prewar missile inventory available in the midst of a US and Israeli air campaign to cripple its long-range strike capability.
From Feb. 28 to April 8, when the ceasefire took effect, Iran launched more than 1,850 missiles around the region and at least twice as many rudimentary Shahed-type cruise missiles.
In the first month of the war, the US and Israel estimated they destroyed about two-thirds of Iran’s launchers. US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said in mid-March that the regime’s offensive capability had been reduced by 90%.
Many of Iran’s ballistic missiles and launchers were reported to be “entombed” — meaning buried in rubble that blocked the entrances to their underground storage facilities. Tehran most likely used the time during the ceasefire to reopen those depots and shift supplies.
Shaheds, which are propeller-driven cruise missiles with a range of more than 1,000 kilometers , use almost entirely off-the-shelf parts and cost less than $50,000 to make.
Iran could build new Shaheds with access to fiberglass, explosives, guidance systems and motors, although some of those materials — particularly explosives — could be hard to come by after weeks of bombing, according to a person familiar with the matter who asked not to be identified because they were not authorized to speak to the media.
Building new models wouldn’t be much of an issue for Iran’s industrial base, even in wartime, said Kelly Grieco, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Stimson Center.
“It is hard to destroy production altogether, particularly when it is distributed across multiple sites,” Grieco said.
Iran having a relatively large proportion of its prewar arsenal available now makes the resumption of full-scale attacks a harder decision for the US, she said.
“Despite all the tactical successes claimed by the United States, it hasn’t achieved its goals of crippling Iran’s defense industrial base or significantly degrading Iran’s missile program,” said Becca Wasser, defense lead for Bloomberg Economics. “Iran has shown remarkable resilience and ability to reconstitute its missile arsenal.”
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