Moody’s Ratings on Tuesday said India has a lower overall exposure to the US relative to others in the APAC region, although certain sectors such as food, textiles and pharmaceutical products face risks.
Photograph: Dado Ruvic/Reuters
Moody’s said most companies in its rated portfolio are domestic-focused with limited exposure to the US market.
To mitigate pressure from reciprocal tariffs, the US and India are reportedly engaged in talks to lower import tariffs on select US products, increase market access for US farm products and increase US energy purchases, while seeking to initiate a trade deal by the fall of 2025.
Across APAC, developing countries like India, Vietnam and Thailand have among the widest rate differentials relative to the US, Moody’s said.
It said electronics, motor vehicles, food and textiles are the most exposed sectors.
In addition to the hit from lower export demand, a key risk facing emerging economies in the region is that those aiming to nurture an export-led growth model similar to China and other advanced APAC economies will find it difficult to compete in an increasingly interventionist trade environment.
US President Donald Trump has announced he will impose reciprocal tariffs on its trading partners, including India.
The new US administration has already enacted additional 10 per cent tariffs on imports from China and 25 per cent tariffs on steel and aluminium.
Moody’s said while the US is an overall net exporter of food, feeds and industrial supplies to APAC, it is a net importer of capital goods, automotive vehicles and parts and consumer goods.
Reciprocal tariffs will have an impact on a number of key sectors in APAC with exposure to US final demand, such as computer and electronic products, chemicals, motor vehicles, as well as food, textiles and wood products.
“India has a lower overall exposure relative to most others in the region, although certain sectors such as food and textiles as well as pharmaceutical products face risks,” Moody’s Ratings said.
The rating agency said APAC’s overall policy response will be crucial in determining the full impact on credit strength.
“We expect governments will likely act pragmatically, aiming to avoid escalation with the US, preferring to negotiate on a bilateral basis, as shown by recent developments,” Moody’s said.
Given a more restrictive trading environment, currencies of targeted APAC economies could face continued downward pressure given potentially higher capital outflows and a likely stronger US dollar, with regional central banks having a much narrower window for easing domestic monetary policies to support economic growth.
Most of these economies have adequate macroprudential buffers and sound monetary policy frameworks in place that will mitigate the impact of external shocks.
Moreover, domestic demand in most parts of the region remains strong, bolstered by a modest easing of global and regional financial conditions, Moody’s said.
Given the disruptions that lie ahead for the world trading system as result of US trade policies, governments in the region may also be further incentivized to achieve an enhanced degree of cooperation with one another, Moody’s said.
