Under a high-emission scenario, climate change is likely to result in a 16.9 per cent decline in GDP by 2070 throughout the Asia and Pacific region, with India expected to experience a 24.7 per cent GDP decline, according to a recent report.
The greatest considerable losses would be influenced by rising sea levels and decreased labor productivity, with lower-income and vulnerable economies being affected the most, it stated.
The recent research, featured in the first edition of Asian Development Board’s (ADB) “Asia Pacific Climate Report”, outlines a range of harmful effects threatening the region.
It indicates that if the climate crisis continues to worsen, as many as 300 million individuals in the area might be at risk from coastal flooding, and trillions of dollars’ worth of coastal assets may face annual damages before 2070.
“Climate change has supercharged the devastation from tropical storms, heat waves, and floods in the region, contributing to unprecedented economic challenges and human suffering,” said ADB President Masatsugu Asakawa.
This climate report sheds light on how to finance essential adaptation needs and makes hopeful policy recommendations to governments in our developing member countries on how to cut greenhouse gas emissions at the lowest possible cost, he said.
“Change under a high-end emissions scenario could result in a total loss of 16.9 per cent of GDP in the Asia-Pacific region.” Most of the region would suffer a loss of more than 20 per cent.
“Among the assessed countries and subregions, these losses are concentrated in Bangladesh , Viet Nam , Indonesia , India , ‘the rest of Southeast Asia’ , higher-income Southeast Asia , Pakistan , the Pacific , and the Philippines ,” the report said.
According to the report, emerging Asia is primarily responsible for the rise in global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions since 2000.
Developed economies were the biggest emitters of greenhouse gases during the 20th century, but in the first two decades of the 21st century, emerging Asia has increased its emissions at a faster rate than any other region.
“Consequently, the region’s share of global emissions rose from 29.4 per cent in 2000 to 45.9 per cent in 2021. Emissions from developing Asia continue to rise, driven primarily by China, which contributed about 30 per cent of global emissions in 2021,” the ADB report said.
The report pointed out that the region is home to 60% of the world’s population, with per capita emissions still below the global average. Intensified and more variable rainfall, along with increasingly extreme storms, will lead to more frequent landslides and floods in the region, it said. 7 degrees Celsius of mean global warming.
These outcomes will be further worsened by reductions in slope-stabilizing forest cover, as forests unable to cope with new climate regimes suffer dieback, the report said. Leading models indicate that trillions of dollars in annual capital damage from riverine flooding could occur in Asia and the Pacific by 2070.
Expected annual damage, in line with economic growth, may reach $1. 3 trillion per year by 2070, affecting over 110 million people annually. “India is reported to have the highest number of affected individuals and damage costs, with residential losses being predominant,\” the report said. The GDP loss in 2070 from reduced labour productivity is estimated to be 4. 9% for the region, with tropical and subtropical locations being the most impacted.
These include “the rest of Southeast Asia”, India, Pakistan, and Vietnam. Due to increased riverine flooding under a high-end emissions climate scenario, the GDP loss in 2070 for Asia and the Pacific is projected to be 2. 2 per cent.
Countries with mega-deltas experience the most substantial losses, with Bangladesh, “the rest of Southeast Asia”, and Vietnam facing GDP reductions of 8. 2 per cent, 6. 6 per cent, and 6. 5 per cent, respectively. Indonesia and India each face around a 4 per cent GDP loss, the report said.
