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Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, East Madhya Pradesh, and parts of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh may account for maximum of recorded rain over the next four days until Saturday, according to European agency ECMWF.
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Extremely heavy rain lashed parts of West Bengal, Odisha and Uttarakhand in the 24 hours till Tuesday morning, as a depression lingered over Jharkhand and adjoining north Bengal.
India Meteorological Department (IMD) placed the depression about 50 km east-southeast of Hazaribagh; 80 km northeast of Ranchi; 130 km south-east of Gaya; 180 km east of Daltonganj; and 200 km south-east of Dehri.
Likely to weaken as ‘low’
The system is expected to track west-northwest across Jharkhand and Bihar, weakening into a well-marked low-pressure area by Wednesday. Before it fades, however, it is likely to squeeze out more heavy rain across its immediate path and well beyond. Heavy to very heavy rain is forecast over parts of Assam and Meghalaya; West Bengal; Odisha; Jharkhand; Bihar, East and west Uttar Pradesh; Uttarakhand; and Chhattisgarh.
Monsoon trough alive
The monsoon trough – spine of the seasonal rain machine – ran down on Tuesday from Ferozepur through Dehradun, Shahjahanpur, Varanasi and Dehri, across the depression over Jharkhand and West Bengal, and on to Digha before dipping south-east into the north-east Bay of Bengal.
Cyclonic circulations over north Haryana and east Uttar Pradesh added further weather fuel along its axis. The trough’s eastern end now dipping into the Bay is a telling signal: the waters could spring back to life sooner rather than later, with another low-pressure area potentially taking shape. But its projected location goes to suggest that East and North-East India may continue to be the major beneficiary of resulting rain wave.
Fresh ‘low’ likely
IMD’s numerical weather prediction models broadly support the scenario, factoring in a fresh ‘low’ before the month ends. If it develops as indicated, East and North-East India could again find themselves in the wet zone, keeping the monsoon’s eastern flank busy even as the current depression runs out of steam.
Rain deficit scenario
Overall rain deficit for the country as a whole was unchanged at 13 per cent on Tuesday, with East and North-East India bearing the brunt with 27 per cent. Paradoxically, it is also the only geographical region among the four with any assured prospect of incremental rain until the rest of August, second rainiest after July. Central India was best placed among the three rest with a rain deficit of only one per cent, followed by North-West India (12 per cent) and South Peninsula (21 per cent), in that order.
Published on August 18, 2026
