Gold prices have plummeted in futures trading due to a confluence of factors, including global economic uncertainty, rising inflation fears, and a strong US dollar, prompting investors to reassess their positions in the precious metal.
Photograph: Amit Dave/Reuters
Key Points
- Gold prices sharply declined due to a global selloff driven by rising inflation fears and a strengthening US dollar.
- Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are exacerbating inflation concerns, leading to expectations of potential interest rate hikes.
- The strong US dollar is putting pressure on the Indian rupee, contributing to the decline in gold prices.
- Elevated crude oil prices and rising import costs are expected to widen India’s trade deficit and fuel domestic inflation, further impacting gold.
- Analysts predict that gold prices will continue their downward trend in the near term due to these combined factors.
Gold prices plunged sharply by Rs 8,089 to Rs 1.36 lakh per 10 grams in futures trade on Monday, tracking a global selloff amid rising inflation fears and a firm US dollar.
On the Multi Commodity Exchange, the yellow metal for April delivery slumped by Rs 8,089, or 5.6 per cent, to Rs 1,36,403 per 10 grams.
Last week, gold had dropped Rs 13,974, or 8.82 per cent, to close at around Rs 1.44 lakh per 10 grams on the commodities bourse.
Analysts said the precious metal opened with a sharp gap down and is likely to extend its losing streak for the fourth consecutive week.
Factors Influencing the Gold Price Decline
Gold resumed with a gap down on Monday and is likely to continue its downside momentum for the fourth consecutive week amid tensions in West Asia that have stoked inflation fears and rate hike bets in the near future, Aamir Makda, Commodity & Currency Analyst, Choice Broking, said.
In the international market, gold futures on the Comex continued to decline for the fifth straight session. The April contract depreciated $202.4, or 4.42 per cent, to $4,372.5 per ounce.
“Gold fell below $4,400 per ounce as the ongoing Middle East conflict intensified inflation fears, while major economies face pressure to boost liquidity, including through gold sales, to offset the war’s impact,” Jigar Trivedi, Senior Research Analyst at IndusInd Securities, said.
During the past week, gold futures in overseas markets plunged $486.8, or 9.6 per cent, to settle at $4,574.9 per ounce.
Trivedi noted that gold dropped around 10 per cent as surging oil prices fuelled inflation concerns, prompting markets to price in a prolonged pause or potential rate hikes by major central banks.
Impact on the Indian Rupee and Trade Deficit
Makda of Choice Broking said the dollar index has remained firm above the 99 level, putting pressure on the Indian rupee, which has weakened near the 94-level against the US dollar.
Elevated crude prices and rising import costs are likely to widen India’s trade deficits and stoke domestic inflation, he added.
This could keep pressure on safe-haven assets such as gold in the near term, Makda said.
