Exit Polls Predict Smooth Sail For INDIA Bloc In Haryana, J&K; BJP Loses Sheen

India

oi-Amit Vasudev

Updated: Sunday, October 6, 2024, 9:06 [IST]

The
Congress
party
is
projected
to
gain
a
significant
advantage
in
Haryana,
and
its
alliance
with
the
National
Conference
(NC)
–
both
part
of
the
INDIA
bloc
–
could
have
a
slight
edge
in
Jammu
&
Kashmir,
according
to
several
exit
polls
released
on
Saturday.

In
Haryana,
which
went
to
the
polls
on
Saturday,
nearly
all
major
exit
polls
indicated
that
Congress
might
return
to
power
after
a
decade,
securing
a
comfortable
majority
and
defeating
the
Bharatiya
Janata
Party
(BJP).

If
this
trend
holds,
it
would
mean
that
the
Congress
has
maintained
the
momentum
from
its
performance
in
the
Lok
Sabha
elections,
where
it
blocked
a
BJP
sweep
in
the
state
for
the
first
time
since
2014,
winning
five
of
the
10
parliamentary
seats.

The
exit
polls
for
Jammu
&
Kashmir,
a
Union
territory
that
held
its
first
assembly
elections
in
a
decade
and
its
first
since
the
revocation
of
its
special
status
in
August
2019,
were
more
mixed.

Most
polls
predicted
that
the
NC-Congress
alliance
could
emerge
ahead
in
one
of
the
most
fragmented
elections
the
region
has
seen
in
a
generation,
reported

Hindustan
Times.

BJP
was
expected
to
perform
well
in
the
Hindu-majority
Jammu
region,
which
has
43
seats
in
the
90-member
assembly
after
the
controversial
2022
delimitation.

Meanwhile,
the
NC-Congress
alliance
was
predicted
to
win
in
the
Muslim-majority
Kashmir
Valley,
which
holds
47
seats.

These
assembly
elections
are
the
first
since
the
Lok
Sabha
polls
earlier
this
year,
and
their
outcome
will
impact
national
politics
while
setting
the
stage
for
crucial
state
elections
later
this
year
in
Maharashtra
and
Jharkhand.
The
votes
will
be
counted
on
October
8.

However,
exit
polls
are
not
always
accurate,
especially
in
states
with
diverse
populations,
castes,
and
communities.
Pollsters
have
often
missed
the
mark
in
past
elections,
including
the
recent
Lok
Sabha
polls.

Former
J&K
Chief
Minister
Omar
Abdullah
expressed
skepticism,
stating,
“I’m
amazed
channels
are
bothering
with
exit
polls
especially
after
the
fiasco
of
the
recent
general
elections.
I’m
ignoring
all
the
noise…
because
the
only
numbers
that
matter
will
be
revealed
on
the
8th
of
Oct.
The
rest
is
just
time
pass.”

Overall,
exit
polls
suggested
that
the
results
in
Haryana
and
Jammu
&
Kashmir
might
boost
the
Opposition’s
Indian
National
Developmental
Inclusive
Alliance
(INDIA),
aligning
with
the
trends
seen
in
the
Lok
Sabha
elections
earlier
this
year.
The
data
indicated
that
local
issues,
rather
than
national
ones,
dominated
the
elections.

Congress
MP
Deepinder
Hooda
commented,
“The
BJP
had
no
achievements
on
their
side
and
did
nothing
good
for
the
state.
The
mandate
is
very
clear
and
very
decisive
for
the
Congress.” On
the
other
hand,
BJP
leader
Anil
Vij
dismissed
the
predictions,
asserting,
“The
BJP
will
surely
win
in
Haryana
and
form
the
government
again.”

In
Haryana,
most
exit
polls
predicted
that
the
Congress
would
comfortably
secure
a
majority
in
what
was
a
largely
bipolar
contest,
pushing
the
BJP
into
a
weaker
position.

Axis
MyIndia
predicted
the
Congress
could
win
53-65
seats,
securing
votes
across
various
communities
and
age
groups,
while
Dainik
Bhaskar
suggested
a
lower
range
of
44-54
seats.

Smaller
alliances,
such
as
the
Indian
National
Lok
Dal-Bahujan
Samaj
Party
and
the
Jannayak
Janata
Party-Azad
Samaj
Party,
were
predicted
to
perform
poorly,
while
the
BJP
was
seen
as
retaining
its
core
voter
base
but
losing
ground
to
Congress,
which
appeared
to
be
gaining
support
across
caste
lines.

The
election
was
shaped
by
a
combination
of
issues,
including
anti-incumbency
sentiment
against
the
BJP,
dissatisfaction
with
the
Agnipath
armed
services
recruitment
scheme,
protests
by
top
wrestlers
over
sexual
harassment,
and
the
discontent
of
farmers.

In
the
2019
Haryana
elections,
Congress
won
31
out
of
90
seats,
while
the
BJP
secured
40,
falling
short
of
the
majority
mark
of
46.

The
BJP
formed
the
government
in
alliance
with
the
JJP,
but
the
coalition
collapsed
earlier
this
year
when
Manohar
Lal
Khattar
was
replaced
as
chief
minister
by
Nayab
Singh
Saini.

In
Jammu
&
Kashmir,
the
exit
polls
presented
a
murkier
picture.
Pollsters
suggested
that
the
BJP
might
emerge
as
the
largest
party
in
Jammu,
while
the
NC-Congress
alliance
could
dominate
in
Kashmir.

Republic-PMarq
projected
that
the
NC-Congress
alliance
could
win
55-62
seats,
securing
a
majority
on
its
own.
At
the
lower
end,
Gulistan
News
predicted
the
alliance
would
win
31-36
seats.

This
election,
one
of
the
most
fragmented
in
J&K’s
history,
saw
participation
from
various
parties,
including
the
Peoples
Democratic
Party
(PDP)
led
by
former
Chief
Minister
Mehbooba
Mufti,
the
People’s
Conference
led
by
Sajjad
Gani
Lone,
and
the
Democratic
Progressive
Azad
Party.

However,
most
exit
polls
indicated
that
the
main
contest
was
between
the
BJP
and
the
NC-Congress
alliance.

In
2014,
the
PDP
emerged
as
the
largest
party
with
28
seats
and
formed
a
coalition
government
with
the
BJP,
which
had
25
seats.
The
alliance
fell
apart
in
2018,
leading
to
the
imposition
of
Governor’s
Rule.

In
August
2019,
the
Indian
government
revoked
Article
370,
ending
J&K’s
special
status
and
bifurcating
the
region.

These
elections
are
seen
as
a
crucial
step
towards
restoring
J&K’s
statehood,
with
campaigns
dominated
by
issues
such
as
Article
370,
the
region’s
autonomy,
governance,
and
anti-incumbency
sentiment.