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While governance challenges await the Omar Abdullah government in 2025, security grid is also watchful that the stone pelting, hartal, violence routine of pre-2019 does not make a comeback.
Omar Abdullah, who had a shock defeat in the Lok Sabha polls to Engineer Rashid, won both his seats for the assembly elections.(Image: PTI/File)
On October 8, 2024, Jammu and Kashmir turned yet another page in its political history. The union territory of Jammu and Kashmir elected its first government and Omar Abdullah returned to the Chief Minister’s chair, but with much reduced powers. The National Conference-led alliance managed to win 49 of the 90 seats in the post delimitation assembly, 42 of which went to the NC. Omar Abdullah, who had a shock defeat in the Lok Sabha polls to Engineer Rashid, won both his seats for the assembly elections.
But the 2024 Jammu and Kashmir assembly election is as much a victory for the National Conference as it is for the Election Commission, the security grid and the Centre.
The Narendra Modi government on August 5, 2019, had stripped Jammu and Kashmir of its special status and statehood. Ladakh was bifurcated from the erstwhile state. The Supreme Court set a deadline of September 30, 2024, for elections in J&K. It was widely doubted if Jammuites and Kashmiris would see a free and fair election. The spectre of the 1987 rigged elections, that led to the birth of Hizbul Mujahideen and Syed Salahudin, was still hanging over the psyche of old timers. So, it is no mean achievement that the three phase elections in J&K went without any incident of bullet winning over ballot.
Record breaking numbers
If the assembly elections remained most talked about in Jammu and Kashmir in 2024, the Lok Sabha elections held in May set the tone for the democratic process in the state turned UT. Five seats of Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) set a record on May 27, 2024, with a 58.46 per cent voter turnout. As per the ECI, this was the highest poll participation in the last 35 years.
Baramullah, once the hot bed of terrorism, stood out in the Lok Sabha polls with a 59 per cent voter turnout. Sopore, the home turf of former Hurriyat Chief Syed Ali Shah Geelani in Baramullah had seen 4 per cent voter participation in 2019. In 2024, the number, as per chief electoral officer of J&K, stood at 44 per cent.
The trend of voter enthusiasm continued in the assembly polls too. Almost 63.5 per cent voters turned out in the three-phase assembly elections. The third and final phase saw the maximum turnout of 68.72 per cent. The first two phases saw 61.38 per cent and 57.31 per cent voters respectively. Some constituencies like Kishtwar, which saw terror incidents hours before polling, saw 80 per cent voting.
Jamaat-e-Islami, separatists, all voted for democracy
The year 2024 was also significant for the democratic process in Kashmir, because the separatists, the erstwhile terrorists and families of terror accused, all lined up to vote or get voted. The banned Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) threw its hat in the electoral arena in at least 10 seats in the Kashmir valley. Jamaat backed candidates lost their deposit in majority of these seats including their influence zones of Shopian, Kulgam, Pulwama, Sopore. Their democratic foray was initially criticised by anti-BJP parties as Centre trying to interfere with a fair electoral process in the valley. But the electoral results are now touted by central agencies to argue that Jamaat’s decision to contest elections must be seen as a turning point and minus the conspiracy theory. Jamaat had last contested elections in 1987 and won four seats. Since then it has openly called for boycott of elections. After the Pulwama attack of 2019, which killed 40 Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) men, MHA banned Jamaat-e-Islami under the Unlawful Activities Prevention Act.
Engineer Rashid
If JeI was the talk of the valley in October, in May, it was Engineer Rashid. Sheikh Abdul Rashid, popularly called Engineer Rashid, had been in jail since 2019 in a terror funding case. He created a flutter by defeating Omar Abdullah from the Baramullah seat in Lok Sabha polls. The MP from Awami Ittehad Party was released from Tihar jail ahead of assembly polls but failed to repeat the Lok Sabha performance. Of the 36 seats AIP contested, they won only one – Langate.
Shadow of Terror
But while elections gave J&K watchers much reason to cheer, the shadow of terror remained in 2024 with Pakistan backed terrorists regaining erstwhile grounds in Jammu division. As per central agency data about 70 terrorists have been killed till mid-December this year and 44 of these were foreign terrorists. The number is comparable to the last two years but what worried security grid is the return of terror to Reasi, Doda, Kishtwar, Udhampur in Jammu division in 2024. As Modi 3.0 took oath, seven pilgrims were gunned down in Reasi on June 9, 2024. The bus carrying them was returning from Shi Khouri pilgrimage site. Three village defence guards were killed in Udhampur and Kishtwar. Eighteen security personnel were also martyred in this area.
The return of terror in these areas, which have seen relative peace in the last 10 years, is the newest challenge for the security grid in 2025. Redeployment of forces in Jammu region, checking infiltration, cracking down on over ground workers are steps that have already been initiated. But infiltration through tunnels and drones continue to pose challenge along the International Border.
Way Forward
While governance challenges await the Abdullah government in 2025, security grid is also watchful that the stone pelting, hartal, violence routine of pre-2019 does not make a comeback. Union Home Minister Amit Shah in his last review of 2024 has called for continued coordination of various agencies to implement zero terror and area domination plan. Omar Abdullah is looking at providing solutions to governance issues like better electricity supply, addressing reservation concerns for general category etc. But the elephant in the room is Statehood. While Centre has reiterated its commitment, the UT assembly has passed a resolution. But the big question in 2025 is how soon will Jammu and Kashmir return to statehood and what would it entail?
