At times, Donald Trump’s address to the World Economic Forum in Davos on Wednesday felt rambling and unfocused, but don’t be fooled: The US president has just told his country’s European allies that when it comes to Greenland, he’s making them an offer they can’t refuse.
The world Trump described in Switzerland was that of a Capo di Capo who sees US allies not as partners but ungrateful recipients of protection. It was an approach foretold by Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney on the same stage a day earlier, in the best speech on international affairs I’ve seen a leader make in recent memory. The contrast between the two is worth dwelling on.
Trump’s address was far less coherent, but just as clear and momentous. It spelled out both his assessment of the overwhelming extent of US power, without which Europe in his view would “not exist,” and his willingness to use that leverage to extract anything he considers important enough to call national security. That turns out to cover a wide field including, just in this one speech, pharmaceuticals prices, trade deficits and Greenland — on the subject of which Trump warned any European leaders listening : “You can say yes and we will be very appreciative, or you can say no and we will remember.”
To interpret the raspy, Vito Corleone-like menace in that last phrase, bear in mind that the commander-in-chief of the most powerful military in the world had moments earlier said that he knew he’d probably have to use “excessive force” to get what he wanted on Iceland – which of course he went on to say he would never do.
Unlike in The Godfather, no one will be waking up to a severed horse’s head tomorrow. Trump delivered his threat instead as a series of anecdotes in which he revealed how he’d already — one leader at a time — strong-armed the Europeans into accepting higher tariffs and drug prices. He even imitated Emmanuel Macron, using a mocking imitation of a French accent to mimic the French president as he said “no, no, no” to increasing drug prices, before switching to a meek “yes” under threat of tariffs.
And what happens if you still try to say no? Trump recalled another time when a Swiss leader kept telling him he couldn’t raise tariffs to 30%. She annoyed him by being too pushy — so he put them up to 39%.
This shakedown of America’s traditional allies couldn’t have made clearer how Trump has torn up the Western order his predecessors built. It clearly irritated the president that Carney had offered a game plan a day earlier for what he called “middle powers” to get together and respond.
The first stage in Carney’s recovery program for American allies was to accept that the so-called liberal world order is gone for good and that there’s no point invoking it or pining for it. Great powers will do what they do to secure their perceived interests — so recognize the world for what it is. The second stage is for those left behind to form what amount to coalitions of the beaten up, so as to survive.
Carney described his attempts to build a whole variety of connections and alliances with other lesser powers that would reduce the vulnerabilities of each in their areas of interest or exposure. It’s a technique familiar to anyone who has watched weaker animals group together to fight off a predator, in a nature film.
But nations and humans can surely do better. And because this requires collective action it must, inevitably, mean finding new vehicles and mechanisms to recreate the rules and conventions that brought “the West” 80 years of peace and prosperity – only this time without American power to enforce them, however selective that may have been. It’s just that getting there will take time and, in the interim, it isn’t obvious how to navigate between Vladimir Putin’s Russia, Xi Jinping’s China and Trump’s US.
Carney’s done a better job than most, standing up to US bullying when he can, bending when he must and looking for ways to strengthen Canada’s position for the future. He listed his efforts to diversify and solidify his nation’s markets, supplies, and security relationships since taking office, in the face of a barrage of threats from Trump about making Canada the 51st US state. Canada’s central banker-turned politician was talking his own book, of course, and who knows if he’ll succeed. But this was a grown-up assessment of what the future holds for America’s abandoned allies — from London to Berlin, from Tokyo to Sydney.
All of America’s allies are going to need this kind of pragmatism to manage Trump, while at the same time acknowledging their weaknesses, building up their military and economic strength and diversifying trade, energy and security relationships so as to end their overdependence on American money and power.
The US President clearly heard Carney’s speech, and understood it was directed at him. “Canada lives because of the United States,” Trump warned. “Remember that, Mark, next time you’re going to make one of your statements.” But he should heed Carney’s words.
When the US president claims his country gained nothing from allies for shouldering the costs of their protection over the last eight decades, he is fundamentally wrong. The US has gained a great deal, especially through market access, investment, borrowing, arms sales and military support for draining military operations such as Afghanistan. In the longer term, the diversification and reorientation that Carney foresees among his so-called middle powers will cost the US dear, too.
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This column reflects the personal views of the author and does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.
Marc Champion is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering Europe, Russia and the Middle East. He was previously Istanbul bureau chief for the Wall Street Journal.
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