Saturday’s rejig of ‘Team Nadda’ had many interesting revelations – Dilip Ghosh being dropped giving rise to speculation that he may be inducted in the cabinet when changes are made next, the removal of CT Ravi amid buzz of him being appointed the next Karnataka BJP chief in line with the saffron camp’s Tamil Nadu “experiment” where it tried a much younger and energetic leader, and a big Pasmanda Muslim push among others.
There were, however, two underlying political messages, which have set political circles abuzz in Uttar Pradesh and reignited possibilities that were once thought of, but eventually faded away.
Will Nitish Kumar contest from Kurmi-dominated seat in UP?
There has been much speculation over whether Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar will be fighting the Lok Sabha polls from a Kurmi-dominated seat in Uttar Pradesh, and this has been going around since last year. Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav welcomed it back then, but much water has flown under the bridge since the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance, or INDIA, came into being.
But, on Saturday, BJP national president JP Nadda retained Rekha Verma, who is already an MP, as the party’s vice-president while leaders with a larger mass base like Radha Mohan Singh or Dilip Ghosh were dropped. This move was possibly made with an eye to send out a message to the Kurmi community – a key part of UP’s other backward classes (OBC).
It is widely being seen as a counter to any possible move by Nitish Kumar fighting from any Kurmi-dominated seat. Talks of him fighting from Phulpur are already gaining traction, thanks to the BJP reigniting this thought.
Kurmis, a largely agrarian community in UP, account for almost 9 percent of the state’s population. This is marginally smaller than the next big caste grouping of Yadavs and Ahirs.
Politically speaking, they have significant sway, and if their biggest face and a serving CM at that fights from UP, caste allegiance could trump other sentiments and the BJP is mindful of that.
The BJP’s decision to retain Verma also seems to be driven by electoral arithmetic. In the last assembly election in Uttar Pradesh, 22 Kurmi MLAs from the BJP won, down from 26 in 2017. In contrast, 13 Kurmi legislators were elected on an SP ticket, up from two in 2017.
The Samajwadi Party is a constituent of the INDIA of which Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) is also a part. No wonder, if he decides to contest, the Bihar CM will enjoy his caste backing along with the SP’s political backing.
Jats ignored for now; could RLD be key later?
The Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD), a key party in western UP, has rubbished any possibility of an alliance with the ruling party. And the fact that the BJP did not induct a single Jat leader from the state in ‘Team Nadda’ seems to have reignited this other speculation all over again.
More or less, all communities – Vaishya, backward, Thakur, Brahmin, Muslim – have found representation in BJP’s team that will go to the general elections. But one key community is missing, the Jats.
Though they comprise 2 percent of the state’s 20-crore population, they form 30 to 35 percent of the population in 25 constituencies in western UP, which makes them indispensable. So, why would the BJP ignore them in such a carefully caste-balanced team?
Many within the political circles in the state have started to believe with renewed vigour that a BJP-RLD alliance is still on the cards. The RLD is primarily a Jat-based party, which during Chaudhary Charan Singh’s time had woven a Jat-Muslim social engineering left in tatters after the 2013 Muzaffarnagar riots during his son Ajit Singh’s time.
Now, the party primarily has one base – Jats who are agrarian OBCs in UP like Kurmis and one leader, Ajit Singh’s son Jayant Singh. The wider belief after Saturday is that other communities were given space in ‘Team Nadda’ at the cost of politically relevant Jats is probably because the BJP is confident that Jayant – carrying the legacy of his grandfather and with a command over the community – is going to side with the BJP in the all-important political arena.
