Indian stock markets are poised for movement influenced by crucial factors including domestic inflation data, the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, and global crude oil price trends, according to market analysts.
Illustration: Dominic Xavier/Rediff
Key Points
- Indian stock markets will be primarily driven by domestic inflation data and the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision.
- Trends in crude oil prices and the outcome of the proposed US-Iran deal are significant global factors influencing market sentiment.
- Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) have continued to sell Indian equities, with outflows surging to Rs 2.87 lakh crore so far in 2026.
- The upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting will be closely watched for the Fed’s commentary on inflation and future rate cuts.
- A potential peace deal between the US and Iran could lead to a correction in Brent crude prices, benefiting India as a major oil importer.
Market investors would keenly track inflation data, the US Fed interest rate decision, and trends in crude oil prices to determine further movement, analysts said.
Besides, the status of the US-Iran deal signing on Sunday, trading activity of foreign investors and movement in global markets would also drive sentiments in domestic equities, experts noted.
Key Economic Indicators
“On the domestic front, investors will monitor the release of May WPI inflation data,” Ajit Mishra – SVP, Research, Religare Broking Ltd, said.
Globally, the US Federal Reserve’s policy decision will be the most significant event, he added.
US President Donald Trump has said a deal to end the war with Iran would be signed on Sunday and that the strategic Strait of Hormuz would be “open to all” immediately afterwards.
At the same time, Trump kept the threat of fresh attacks dangling if the deal failed to pan out as expected.
Markets are likely to remain highly sensitive to developments surrounding the proposed US–Iran agreement, Ponmudi R, CEO, Enrich Money, an online trading and wealth tech firm, said.
Foreign Investor Activity and Future Outlook
Meanwhile, foreign investors remained sellers in Indian equities, dumping more than Rs 62,853 crore of shares in the first fortnight of June.
With the latest outflows, total withdrawals by Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) from Indian equities have surged to Rs 2.87 lakh crore so far in 2026, surpassing the Rs 1.66 lakh crore pulled out during the entire calendar year 2025, according to data from the National Securities Depository Ltd (NSDL).
Pravesh Gour, Senior Technical Analyst at Swastika Investmart Ltd, said, on the domestic front, the progress of the monsoon season and inflation trends will remain key areas of focus.
“Another major event on investors’ radar is the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026. Market participants will closely monitor the Fed’s commentary, inflation outlook, economic growth projections, and indications regarding future rate cuts,” he added.
Last week, the BSE benchmark Sensex jumped 1,284.61 points, or 1.73 per cent, and the NSE Nifty surged 256.2 points, or 1 per cent.
“Recent geopolitical developments, which everyone expects to lead to a peace deal between the US and Iran, have led to a sharp correction in the price of Brent crude. For a big oil importer like India, this is a huge positive,” V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments Limited, said. PTI SUM HVA
