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The exact number of candidates fielded by each constituent of Mahayuti and Maha Vikas Aghadi cannot be reconciled, as some parties have given nomination to two candidates in certain seats
The ruling Mahayuti (above) and opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi head into the Maharashtra assembly elections with massive uncertainty and suspense. (Image: PTI/File)
The nomination deadline for the Maharashtra assembly elections now closed, a somewhat blurry picture of the seat-sharing formula between major parties in the two alliances – Mahayuti and Maha Vikas Aghadi – has finally emerged.
But, the suspense and uncertainty remains as the exact number of candidates fielded by each constituent of the ruling and opposition alliances cannot be reconciled. This is because some parties have given nomination forms to two candidates in certain seats while there is news of rebellion from others.
What do the numbers look like?
Tuesday was the last day to submit nomination papers. A total of 7,995 candidates have filed 10,905 nomination papers. Looking at the nomination filing, a majority of the assembly constituencies will have an intense electoral battle.
According to the latest tally, the BJP has filed nominations on 152 seats, Shiv Sena on 81 seats and the NCP on 54 seats – the total comes to 287 seats, and this includes seats given to smaller parties in the alliance.
In the remaining seat, which is likely the Sewri constituency in Mumbai, the Mahayuti has not fielded a candidate so as to show support to MNS leader Bala Nandgaonkar. He is up against incumbent Shiv Sena (UBT) MLA Ajay Chowdhary, but the local BJP leader has filed his nomination as an independent.
For the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), meanwhile, there is clarity on a total of 285 seats, which includes eight seats for smaller alliance parties. The Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena has filed nominations on 96 seats, the Congress on 102 and the Sharad Pawar-led NCP on 87. For now, there is no information on the three remaining seats for the alliance, but this nomination data will be updated by the Election Commission website.
What is the deal with Maha Vikas Aghadi?
The opposition MVA had jointly announced their seat-sharing arrangement, aiming to present a united front. The three main parties – Congress, Shiv Sena (UBT) and NCP (SP) – divided the seats among themselves to strengthen their joint stance.
Despite reaching this agreement, however, faced the notable challenge of dual candidacy in at least five constituencies – Miraj, Sangola, South Solapur, Pandharpur and Paranda. Both the Congress and Shiv Sena (UBT) have fielded their own candidates in these seats, creating internal competition and raising questions on their cohesion as an alliance.
This last-minute overlap became apparent as candidates filed their nominations, with the Sena (UBT) issuing AB forms to all 96 selected candidates on the final day. Analysts said this reveals unresolved issues that could affect the performance of the alliance, especially in close contests. They said lack of single candidacy in certain regions could dilute the overall strength of the opposition alliance.
In Miraj, Sena (UBT)’s Tanaji Satpute and Mohan Wankhade of the Congress are vying for the seat. Sangola presents a similar situation, with Sena (UBT)’s Deepak Aaba Salunkhe up against Shetkari Kamgar Paksha (Shekap) candidate Babasaheb Deshmukh.
In South Solapur, Congress candidate Dilip Mane and Sena (UBT)’s Amar Patil are in the race. Pandharpur is likely to witness a contest between Congress candidate Bhagirath Bhalke against NCP (SP)’s Anil Sawant, while Paranda has Sena (UBT)’s Ranjit Patil facing off against NCP (SP)’s Rahul Mote.
Each of these seats is crucial, and the presence of dual candidates could potentially split votes, weakening the projection of a unified front. The MVA’s decision to allocate eight seats to smaller parties adds another layer of complexity.
This arrangement is intended to create a broad coalition; however, the five constituencies with dual candidates highlight the challenges in achieving complete cohesion. This internal competition suggests a potential weakening of vote consolidation efforts in areas where the alliance planned to present a united front.
Shiv Sena (UBT) chief Uddhav Thackeray has moved forward with a full list of 96 candidates, demonstrating the party’s commitment to its alliance partners. But, these overlapping candidacies leave MVA supporters concerned.
The MVA, however, has attempted to downplay these issues suggesting last-minute discussions may resolve them. But, dual candidacies introduce an unexpected element of competition and, as the polls approach, its success will hinge on its ability to maintain a cohesive strategy and overcome these challenges. The performance of the alliance will depend not only on the effectiveness of its campaign, but also on its ability to manage internal differences in these seats.
What is the Mahayuti’s scene?
The ruling Mahayuti, meanwhile, faces a different kind of turmoil. The three major parties are facing rebellion in their ranks as those who have been denied tickets have defied their leaderships and filed nominations for the assembly polls.
The BJP, which has fielded the highest number of candidates among the major parties, is struggling to manage possible damage from rebels in Mumbai as well as in other parts of the state. In Mumbai’s Borivali constituency, the BJP’s official candidate Sanjay Upadhyay faces a challenge from former party MP Gopal Shetty.
Denied a ticket in the Lok Sabha as well as the state elections, Shetty has filed his nomination as an independent candidate. In Andheri, Swikruti Sharma – wife of former cop Pradip Sharma – has filed her nomination against Shinde-led Sena’s Murji Patel and incumbent MLA Rutuja Latke of the Shiv Sena (UBT). Pradip, who previously contested from the Vasai seat on Uddhav’s ticket, has shown his continued involvement in regional politics through his wife’s candidacy in this election.
While it was the last date for filing nominations for the November 20 polls to the 288-member state assembly, the papers of candidates will be scrutinised on Wednesday (October 30). November 4 is the last date for withdrawal of candidatures and after that a clear picture will emerge on the number of rebels still left in the fray.
If rebels and overlapping candidacies prevail, they will pose a significant challenge for official candidates and potentially upset the poll arithmetic of the main contenders for power.
