Notwithstanding the denial, the rhetoric by BJP’s senior leadership in the runup to Lok Sabha elections left no one in doubt about India’s intentions in targeting those whom it considered as hostile even if they resided on foreign soil. A report in ‘The Guardian’ on April 4, 2024, buttressed Pakistan’s charges and claimed that about 20 such people have been killed by unknown gunmen in Pakistan since 2020. The report also admitted that all those killed were known terrorists associated with outlawed terror groups and were wanted by India.
What perhaps emboldens Pakistan now is that the United States needs it to stem the economic rise of China by ensuring that the work on China Pakistan Economic Corridor remains stalled and no more agreements are signed for CPEC’s next version. Besides, the US also levelled a similar allegation against India by identifying elements within Indian government for planning to assassinate its national in the US. Canada’s accusation blaming agents linked to Indian government for assassination of its national on its soil was also backed by the US.
Therefore, an escalation from Pakistan’s side should have been anticipated. By coinciding the first major attack of targeting a bus carrying pilgrims at Reasi with the swearing in of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Pakistan army signalled to the new government in New Delhi that it intended to change the status quo on Kashmir. The attack took place around the same time that Modi was being sworn in on June 9. A day earlier, Jammu and Kashmir director general of police had sounded an alarm that around 70-80 Pakistani terrorists had infiltrated.
Since then, in two major ambushes in Kathua and Doda, Indian Army lost 9 personnel, including one officer. At the same time, in a separate encounter, the Army also killed three Pakistani terrorists in Doda on June 26.
The first crucial question is why is there an escalation of violence in Jammu region? It is well known that the international border and Line of Control in Jammu don’t have the kind of anti-infiltration grid as in the Valley. Besides, the security grid in the hinterland is also not that close knit. So, if terrorists manage to breach the first line of defence on the border, they may not have to confront security formations to reach their destination. What baffles security experts is that unlike past, these freshly infiltrated groups are aggressively targeting Indian Army, thereby exposing their location. Besides, in any ambush, these terrorists would expend the ammunition brought from across and that would make them vulnerable the next time when they would be surrounded by the Army. This would mean that these terrorists would either be killed or might risk going back to Pakistan with depleted ammunition stock.
The second crucial question is why the attacks have become deadlier?
Unlike in the past, terrorists are now carrying deadlier weapons like American-made M4 assault rifles that are customised with thermal imaging sights suitable for attacks in dense fog and night conditions. These weapons use armour-piercing bullets ideal for ambushes. M4 assault rifles were recovered from terrorists killed in Hiranagar and Doda. Pakistan army has laid hands on these weapons that the US had given to defence forces in Afghanistan.
Those who have seen terrorism in Jammu and Kashmir since the onset of militancy understand as to how Pakistan controls and calibrates flow of terrorists to our side. There is no dearth of trained terrorists that Pakistan can infiltrate at short notice. So, how should India move from here?
The sensible way would be to first lower the prevailing sentiment against New Delhi that was reflected in the recently concluded Parliament elections in the Valley. Suggestion: Release those unjustly detained, restore statehood and hold assembly elections.
The order giving more powers to the lieutenant governor is counterproductive. Also, remarks by J&K DGP blaming mainstream political parties for the infiltration should have been disowned and discarded.
There is hardly any local support for terrorists in all districts along the border with Pakistan in Jammu region. Hence any over-reaction to identify and punish alleged local collaborators will prove to be counterproductive and alienate locals whose support is crucial for interception of the infiltrating groups.
The most difficult and tricky issue is how to deal with Pakistan? It would be better for both India and Pakistan to engage bilaterally to build trust rather than bringing in third countries like the US. It’s true that help from friendly countries like the United Arab Emirates ensured that both sides observed truce on border in Jammu and Kashmir since February 2021. But a new beginning of bilateral engagement could be made.
