The exit polls have belied the general buzz- created courtesy the media and disparate voices from the ground- on which party is winning in which state. If they go right, the impact of these Assembly elections- which have already been declared the semi-finals to the Lok Sabha polls by the political pundits- will be greater than anticipated.
A poll of exit polls shows Congress and BJP neck and neck in Rajasthan, while the former is ahead in Chhattisgarh. BJP is likely to form the government in Madhya Pradesh. Congress is likely to form the government in Telangana, defeating BRS which many considered a clear front-runner. Mizoram is likely to have a hung Assembly, a rarity in this North-Eastern state.
If Congress wins in Rajasthan, it will be a shot in the arm for Ashok Gehlot who was said to be facing anti-incumbency and intra-party tussles. The border state is also known for voting out the incumbent and this trend will be broken if the exit poll predictions are right. This would also be an indication that former deputy chief minister Sachin Pilot has buried the hatchet and the Gujjars have by and large voted for Congress with the hope that their leader will be reinstated. To have a smooth run and prevent any rebellions, Gehlot may accommodate Pilot in his cabinet.
- All
- Madhya Pradesh
- Rajasthan
- Telangana
- Chhattisgarh
- Mizoram
A Congress victory will also mean virtually the start of the process of Vasundhara Raje’s political retirement. A new crop of BJP leaders is already waiting in the wings to make a mark.BJP’s victory in Madhya Pradesh will be a big setback for the Congress which had pinned its hopes on improving its 2018 performance when it had won five more seats than the former. India Today-Axis, News24 Chanakya and India TV-CNX have predicted a BJP sweep in the state while ABP-C Voter and Times Now-ETG maintain Congress has an edge in a close contest.It would be a major boost to Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan and the BJP if they win by a landslide despite the party being in power for 20 years. If true, Chouhan will surely claim credit for his welfare schemes. A big win will, however, give BJP high command the space to appoint another chief minister, something the central leadership is said to be very keen on.The Chhattisgarh exit poll predictions are closer to the general belief about the outcome. Bhupesh Baghel led Congress government in the state was expected to win and even the BJP insiders did not sound very hopeful of a victory. In 2018, Congress had won 68 out of 90 seats in the state. This time the numbers are likely to be less but a victory would be a big boost. BJP was seemingly leaderless and inactive in the state in the last five years. The saffron party is, however, confident of doing well in the Bastar tribal belt this time.
K Chandrashekhar Rao had changed his party’s name from TRS to BRS to express his ambitions of going national but his government may be voted out after a decade in power. The exit polls show Congress stomping to victory. Reports from the ground had shown a significant jump in Congress prospects during the campaign but the buzz was that BRS will still manage to get another term, maybe with the support of Asadudin Owaisi’s AIMIM or the BJP.
Though KCR had gained popularity with his welfare schemes, there were also issues of lack of accessibility to him for the commoners. He functioned from his farm house and his son KT Rao was said to be the real chief minister. There were also noises about the BRS regime encouraging graft. KCR’s daughter and MLC K Kavitha is named in the Delhi liquor scam.
Malkajgiri MP and Congress state unit president A Revanth Reddy has emerged as a strong leader in the party and would get credit for galvanising the organisation. The decade-long anti-incumbency against BRS has benefited Congress with most of the disgruntled leaders and supporters of KCR switching over to the latter.
If the Exit polls are proved right, Congress will also give credit to Rahul Gandhi for this victory as his Bharat Jodo Yatra had passed through Telangana.
Exit polls have a tarred reputation though some have been eerily accurate. In the 2015 Bihar Assembly elections, a prominent news channel had not run an exit poll on the last day of polling as it showed JDU-RJD-Congress winning against BJP. In the 2012 Uttar Pradesh elections, CSDS got its predictions about Samajwadi Party forming the government with 224/403 seats proved right.
However, most exit polls get the numbers wrong. The fact that four prominent exit polls have thrown up different outcomes means the predictions of some will have to be taken with a pinch of salt.
Since the stakes and excitement of polls are very high, people are glued to the television screens knowing well that what they see may prove wrong in the next few days. At least till the final results, all discussions will be around the exit poll predictions with some agreeing and some rubbishing them, as per their beliefs and hopes.
