With the Assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh a few months away, the pieces on the chessboard of politics have started moving. The main Opposition force, the Samajwadi Party (SP), has sharpened its strategy to breach the consolidated non-Yadav OBC support base of BJP allies by rolling out its women-led PDA (Pichhda, Dalit, Alpsankhyak) outreach.
For the past few years, the BJP has relied on its network of regional allies in the state to secure key non-Yadav OBC constituencies. The Apna Dal (Sonelal) is seen to be influential among the Kurmi-Patels, the Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP) among Rajbhars, and the NISHAD Party among riverine communities such as Nishad, Mallah, and Kewat. Together, these groups form a decisive electoral bloc, particularly in Purvanchal or eastern UP.
Beyond M-Y formula
Traditionally anchored in the Muslim-Yadav (M-Y) combination, the SP has been attempting a broader social coalition since the last election and appears to have doubled down on this strategy. Its recent moves suggest a calibrated effort to symbolically and organisationally penetrate caste bases aligned with NDA using women’s leadership as the pivot.
The appointment of Seema Rajbhar as national president of the SP Mahila Sabha is being seen as a direct outreach to the Rajbhar community, mobilised politically by SBSP chief Om Prakash Rajbhar. Hailing from Ballia in eastern UP, her elevation signals the SP’s intent to expand its footprint in districts where the SBSP has influence. A former SBSP worker, Seema Rajbhar has been publicly critical of Rajbhar.
The Rajbhar community is estimated to constitute around 4-5% of the state’s population, mainly concentrated in districts such as Ghazipur, Azamgarh, Ballia, Chandauli, Gorakhpur, Jaunpur and Mau. The SBSP currently has six MLAs – elected in alliance with the SP in 2022 before switching to the NDA, with Om Prakash Rajbhar now a state minister.
Similarly, the SP’s appointment of Rukmani Nishad, sister of former MP Phoolan Devi, as the state head of its women’s wing is seen as outreach to the Nishad-Mallah-Kewat cluster. This group, estimated at 5-6% of the population, is influential in riverine belts, the Terai region and parts of Purvanchal. The move directly challenges the BJP’s ally, the NISHAD Party led by Sanjay Nishad.
The NISHAD Party currently has five MLAs. The community’s presence extends beyond eastern UP into parts of central Uttar Pradesh, potentially influencing outcomes in 25-30 Assembly seats.
The Kurmi factor
The SP’s outreach to Kurmi-Patels— another crucial OBC bloc comprising roughly 7-8% of the population — is more complex. The party once had influential Kurmi leaders such as Beni Prasad Verma, a founding member, but has in recent years sought to build new leadership within the community.
Ahead of the 2022 Assembly elections, the SP brought in Pallavi Patel, leader of the Apna Dal (Kamerawadi) faction and daughter of Apna Dal founder Sone Lal Patel. She contested on an SP ticket from Sirathu against then Deputy Chief Minister Keshav Prasad Maurya and won, a result seen as symbolically significant.
Pallavi, the sister of Union Minister Anupriya Patel, continues to be an SP MLA, though her intermittent dissent has raised questions. Her presence nonetheless provides the SP with a channel into the Kurmi-Patel vote base, where the Apna Dal (Sonelal) remains a dominant NDA ally, with 13 MLAs and representation in both the Union and state governments.
Why a women-led PDA strategy
Party insiders say the women-focused appointments serve multiple political purposes.
First is social signalling: elevating women from marginalised OBC communities to reinforce the PDA narrative while countering the BJP’s charge that the Opposition underrepresent women. Second is targeted mobilisation. It shows that the party draws its leaders from specific caste groups, thus enabling outreach in regions where caste identity continues to shape voting behaviour.
Third, it is a direct counter to NDA allies. Two of them — the SBSP and the NISHAD Party — were once aligned with the SP. By mirroring their caste bases through women leaders, the SP is attempting to reclaim lost ground.
The strategy also seeks to respond to the BJP’s narrative portraying the Opposition as “anti-women”, especially in the aftermath of the women’s reservation Bill failing to clear Parliament.
The strategy is particularly focused on eastern Uttar Pradesh, where NDA allies have a strong presence: the SBSP in Mau, Ghazipur, Ballia and Jaunpur; the NISHAD Party in Sant Kabir Nagar, Kushinagar and Maharajganj; and Apna Dal’s wider influence across the state.
By installing women leaders drawn from these communities and regions, the SP appears to be attempting a ground-up mobilisation that goes beyond its traditional vote banks.
