Two fresh exit polls on Wednesday pointed to a National Democratic Alliance victory in Bihar with Axis My India showing a clear edge for the ruling alliance and Today’s Chanakya forecasting a big win for it over the Mahagathbandhan.
IMAGE: RJD leader Misa Bharti visits the hospital after the roof of a dilapidated house suddenly collapsed killing five members of the same family on the spot, at Danapur area in Patna, November 10, 2025. Photograph: ANI Photo
Both the exit polls forecast a disappointing electoral debut for Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj.
The Axis My India Exit Poll predicted that the NDA would be ahead of the Mahagathbandhan in Bihar but the RJD would emerge as the single-largest party when results for the Assembly polls are announced on Friday.
Axis My India predicted the NDA to win between 121-141 seats, and the Mahagathbandhan 98-118 seats.
It gave 0-2 seats to the Jan Suraaj.
Today’s Chanakya forecast that while the BJP and its allies would get 160 seats (with a plus-minus margin of error of 12 seats), the RJD and its allies would bag 77 seats (with a plus-minus margin of error of 12 seats).
It forecast that the BJP and its allies would bag 44 percent (plus-minus 3 percent) vote share and the RJD and its allies would get 38 percent (plus-minus 3 pr cent) votes.
The projections come a day after all major exit polls predicted a return of the NDA government in Bihar with a big victory over the Mahagathbandhan.
All exit polls have unanimously forecast a poor electoral debut for Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj.
In its party-wise break-up, Axis My India predicted that the RJD would be the single-largest party getting between 67-76 seats, followed by the JD-U at 56-62 seats, BJP 50-56 seats, Congress 17-21 seats, Vikassheel Insaan Party 3-5 seats, and Left parties 10-14 seats.
According to the exit poll, the NDA would get a vote share percentage of 43 percent, Mahagathbandhan 41 percent, and the Jan Suraaj 4 percent.
It also claimed that while 34 percent people want to see RJD’s Tejashwi Yadav as the chief minister, 22 percent want incumbent Nitish Kumar (JD-U) to remain at the helm.
The exit poll also gave a gender-wise break-up of vote share. It projected that while the NDA would get 41 percent male and 45 percent female votes, the Mahagathbandhan would get 42 percent male and 40 percent female votes.
The Bihar polls were conducted in two phases on November 6 and 11, and the results will be announced on November 14.
While the Matrize Exit Poll forecast the NDA likely getting between 147-167 seats, the Mahagathbandhan 70-90, and the Jan Suraaj between 0-2 seats, Dainik Bhaskar predicted 145-160 seats for the NDA and 73-91 for the Mahagathbandhan.
The People’s Insight predicted 133-148 seats for the NDA, 87-102 for the Mahagathbandhan and 0-2 for Jan Suraaj.
The People’s Pulse gave 133-159 seats to the NDA, 75-101 to the Mahagathbandhan, and 0-5 to Prashant Kishore’s party.
The JVC forecast 135-150 seats for the NDA and 88-103 for the Mahagathbandhan. The Polstrat predicted 133-148 seats for the NDA and 87-102 for the Mahagathbandhan.
While the Chanakya Strategies gave the NDA 130-138 eats, 100-108 to the Mahagathbandhan, and zero to Jan Suraaj, pollster P-Marq predicted the NDA to win 142-162 seats, Mahagathbandhan 80-98 and Jan Suraaj 1-4.
The majority mark in the 243-member Assembly is 122.
Exit poll projections are made by election survey agencies based on interviews of voters as they come out after casting their votes. These may vary widely from the actual results.
While the NDA, comprising the BJP, JD-U and LJP (Ram Vilas) as the major alliance partners, is looking to return to power in Bihar, the opposition INDIA bloc, which has the RJD, the Congress and the Left parties as the main constituents, is looking to form the government with RJD’s Tejashwi Yadav its chief ministerial face.
Bihar on Tuesday recorded its highest-ever voter turnout of 67.14 percent, provisionally, at close of polling in the second and final phase of the high-stakes elections, seen as a veritable referendum on the state’s longest-serving chief minister — Nitish Kumar.
