‘The primary market’s rhythm mirrors investor confidence. While sentiment may appear cautious, it reflects maturity, not weakness.’
Illustration: Dominic Xavier/Rediff
Primary markets witnessed a flurry of activity in 2025.
Jimeet Modi, founder and CEO of the Samco Group, tells Puneet Wadhwa/Business Standard in an e-mail interview that investors today are discerning, rewarding only companies with strong fundamentals, good governance, and visible growth.
What’s your market outlook for the next Samvat?
On a year-to-date basis, benchmark indices like Sensex and Nifty have delivered single-digit returns of about 6 per cent, which looks modest compared to gold and silver, which gained 57 per cent and 69 per cent, respectively.
Turbulent geopolitical situations, tariff threats, de-dollarisation, and sliding interest rates have favoured rallies in precious metals.
Most of these issues are likely to persist in the next Samvat as well.
Benchmark indices are likely to remain range-bound due to two main reasons: rich valuations limiting upside until earnings catch up, and domestic liquidity limiting downside.
Thus, the Nifty could remain in a range of 26,277 to 21,281. A breakout beyond this range could trigger a 5 to 10 per cent move in that direction.
What are the biggest risks investors should be mindful of for the next year?
Investors should watch for a global demand slowdown, elevated crude oil prices, and potential volatility in the information technology and energy sectors.
Opportunities remain robust in defence, automotive, banking, commodities, and select manufacturing segments benefiting from import substitution and policy incentives.
How have the fortunes of the broking industry shaped up over the past year?
The past year has been challenging, but there is room only for upward movement from here on out.
The ‘access to investors’ game is over; now it’s about providing value-added services like research and recommendations.
As more people lose money in the markets, brokers’ jobs increasingly focus on helping investors and traders make informed decisions — a direction we are actively pursuing.
Do you think primary market activity will remain subdued in the next Samvat as investors remain selective and companies shy away from listings amid uncertain secondary markets?
The primary market’s rhythm mirrors investor confidence. While sentiment may appear cautious, it reflects maturity, not weakness.
Investors today reward companies with strong fundamentals, good governance, and visible growth.
The era of chasing narratives is over; the focus has shifted to substance over story.
As a result, we may see fewer initial public offerings in the next Samvat, but of far superior quality.
This consolidation is healthy — it separates enduring businesses from transient ones.
For credible promoters, capital remains abundant; it’s just more discerning.
What lies ahead is not a slowdown, but an evolution, where India’s primary market grows leaner, wiser, and ultimately more value-driven.
What’s the road ahead for domestic institutional investor (DII) and foreign institutional investor (FII) flows?
FIIs remain tactical participants, with flows dictated by the global trinity of US rate trajectory, dollar strength, and emerging-market valuations.
While risk aversion persisted during parts of the year, selective re-entry is likely once global rate cycles stabilise — particularly in high-quality financials, manufacturing, defence, specialty chemicals, and automobiles.
DIIs, meanwhile, may recalibrate selectively, rotating from overheated mid and smallcap segments to quality largecaps, maintaining their counter-cyclical role as stabilisers.
Domestic conviction remains strong, underpinned by India’s macro resilience, policy momentum, and robust earnings visibility — structurally insulating markets from global volatility.
Are the markets too optimistic about corporate earnings growth?
Expectations for the July-September quarter point to modest performance, reflecting consolidation rather than acceleration.
Sales activity paused briefly from mid-August following the GST rate cut, with momentum picking up only in late September.
As a result, the full benefits of lower GST rates are likely to materialise in the coming quarters.
Export-oriented sectors gained from rupee depreciation, giving a partial boost to earnings.
While IT faced challenges, the automotive industry emerged as a key beneficiary of the GST reduction.
Overall, near-term earnings may remain steady, but underlying indicators point to the start of an upside cycle, supporting market optimism and opportunities for buying on dips.
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Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff
